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Is Fiscal Policy Contracyclical in India: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Chakraborty, Pinaki
  • Chakraborty, Lekha S

Abstract

The paper empirically examines the validity of Keynesian philosophy of contracyclical variation in fiscal policy to the macroeconomic activity in India. The macroeconomic activity is proxied by ‘output gap’ a concept defined to estimate the index of economic activity. Applying Johansen’s Full Information Maximum Likelihood test of cointegration, it was found that there exists a long run, stable relationship between fiscal policy stance and macroeconomic activity. Further, the causality detection in asymmetric vector autoregression model revealed that there exists feedback mechanism between fiscal policy stance and output gap, which reinforces the Keynesian theory that fiscal stance is contracyclical in nature. The policy implication of these results points to the fallacy of rule-based fiscal policy to contain fiscal deficit, based on the neo-classical assumption that fiscal deficit has detrimental effects through financial crowding out. The results reinforced the role of fiscal deficit not as an evil but as an instrument of short run demand management and also the significance of pump priming.

Suggested Citation

  • Chakraborty, Pinaki & Chakraborty, Lekha S, 2006. "Is Fiscal Policy Contracyclical in India: An Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 7604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7604
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    Cited by:

    1. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2010. "Penentuan Efek Dan Arah Kebijakan Fiskal Pemerintah Indonesia: Fiscal Impulse Measure [Fiscal Policy Stance in Indonesia : Fiscal Impluse Measure]," MPRA Paper 65603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chakraborty, Lekha, 2015. "Fiscal Seigniorage "Laffer-curve effect" on Central Bank Autonomy in India," Working Papers 15/156, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Yusuf D. Bulus & Nnaemeka E. Ohaegbu & Olufunmilayo S. Tajudeen & Chinecherem D. Okoronkwo & Danjuma S. Yusuf, 2023. "Fiscal Deficit Expansion and External Sector Imbalance in Nigeria: Implications for Monetary Policy," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(5), pages 1687-1703, May.
    4. Lekha Chakraborty, 2018. "Monetary Seigniorage in an Emerging Economy: Empirical Evidences," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(5), pages 135-144, May.
    5. Lekha S. Chakraborty, 2015. "Fiscal Seigniorage “Laffer-curve effect†on Central Bank Autonomy in India," Working Papers id:7754, eSocialSciences.
    6. Swati Yadav & V. Upadhyay & Seema Sharma, 2012. "Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks on the Indian Economy," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(4), pages 415-444, November.
    7. Vishal Sharma & Ashok Mittal, 2019. "Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and economic growth in India: a nonlinear ARDL model," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 46(4), pages 353-363, December.
    8. Chakraborty, Lekha S, 2014. "Monetary Seigniorage in an Emerging Economy: Is there a scope for "free lunch" in financing public investment?," MPRA Paper 67497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    9. Chakraborty, Lekha S, 2014. "Macroeconomics of “NaMo” Budget 2014 in India," MPRA Paper 67045, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal stance; Output gap; Contracyclical fiscal policy; Stationarity; Cointegration; Asymmetric vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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