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Modèle de détection avancée des crises bancaires basé sur une approche panel logistique
[Banking crisis detection model based on a panel logistic approach]

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  • Zaghdoudi, Taha

Abstract

The succession of banking crises in which most have resulted in huge economic and financial losses, prompted several authors to study their determinants. These authors constructed early warning models to prevent their occurring. It is in this same vein as our study takes its inspiration. In particular, we have developed a warning model of banking crises based on a panel logit approach. The results of this model have allowed us to identify the involvement of the decline in bank profitability, deterioration of the competitiveness of the traditional intermediation, banking concentration and higher real interest rates in triggering bank crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaghdoudi, Taha, 2015. "Modèle de détection avancée des crises bancaires basé sur une approche panel logistique [Banking crisis detection model based on a panel logistic approach]," MPRA Paper 72363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72363
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Hyman P. Minsky, 1957. "Central Banking and Money Market Changes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(2), pages 171-187.
    3. Gasbarro, Dominic & Sadguna, I Gde Made & Zumwalt, J Kenton, 2002. "The Changing Relationship Between CAMEL Ratings and Bank Soundness during the Indonesian Banking Crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 247-260, November.
    4. POWO FOSSO, Bruno, 2000. "Les déterminants des faillites bancaires dans les pays en développement: le cas des pays de l'Union économique et monétaire Ouest-africaine (UEMOA)," Cahiers de recherche 2000-02, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking crisis; logistic panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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