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EU Enlargement to the East and its Impact on Non-accessing Countries, Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

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  • Eromenko, Igor

Abstract

In March 1998, the EU formally launched accession negotiations with a number of countries. In this process there is a danger that countries of the new EU will switch to the trade inside the Union and non-accessing countries will face isolation, locking at the trade between them and lacking flows of foreign capital and new technologies, which can lead to the further gap in the regional development. Above all it concerns Former Soviet Union countries and in the paper the author investigates this issue. For this purpose the author employs Computable General Equilibrium Model, developed by Global Trade Analysis Project (USA). Database for the model is GTAP 4, in current research it was aggregated into 5 regions and 8 sectors of economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Eromenko, Igor, 2002. "EU Enlargement to the East and its Impact on Non-accessing Countries, Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 67534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67534
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1998. "Trade liberalization and endogenous growth in a small open economy : a quantitative assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1970, The World Bank.
    2. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    3. Harrison, Glenn W & Rutherford, Thomas F & Wooton, Ian, 1989. "The Economic Impact of the European Community," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 288-294, May.
    4. Junichi Goto & Koichi Hamada, 1995. "EU, NAFTA, and Asian Responses: A Perspective from the Calculus of Participation," NBER Working Papers 5325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Martín, Carmela, 1995. "The Impact of EU Trade Agreements with Central and East European Countries: The Case of Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 1238, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Michalopoulos, Constantine & Tarr, David, 1997. "The economics of customs unions in the Commonwealth of Independent States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1786, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional integration; EU enlargement; Computable General Equilibrium model; GTAP; FSU countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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