IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/65078.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An exchange rate target zone model with a terminal condition and mean-reverting fundamentals

Author

Listed:
  • Ajevskis, Viktors

Abstract

This paper proposes a target zones exchange rate model with a terminal condition of entering a currency zone. It is assumed that the exchange rate is a function of the fundamental and time. Another essential assumptions of the model is that the fundamental process is bounded inside the band [-f,f] and that terminal condition for the exchange rate holds. Using Ito’s lemma, we obtain a parabolic partial differential equation for the exchange rate. The fundamental is specified in two ways: as a regulated Brownian motion and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. For the case of the Brownian motion process the closed form solution of the problem is obtained, whereas for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process the closed form solution does not exist, therefore we had to use numerical method for solving of the problem. Both specifications are compared numerically.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajevskis, Viktors, 2015. "An exchange rate target zone model with a terminal condition and mean-reverting fundamentals," MPRA Paper 65078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65078/1/MPRA_paper_65078.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    2. Viktors Ajevskis, 2011. "A target zone model with the terminal condition of joining a currency area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1273-1278.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Louis Arcand & Max-Olivier Hongler & Shekhar Hari Kumar & Daniele Rinaldo, 2020. "Can one hear the shape of a target zone?," Papers 2002.00948, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arcand, Jean-Louis & Kumar, Shekhar Hari & Hongler, Max-Olivier & Rinaldo, Daniele, 2023. "Can one hear the shape of a target zone?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Markus Hertrich, 2022. "Foreign exchange interventions under a minimum exchange rate regime and the Swiss franc," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 450-489, May.
    3. Ken Miyajima, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention and expectation in emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 414, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Seungwook Bahng, 2003. "Do Psychological Barriers Exist in the Stock Price Indices? Evidence from Asia's Emerging Markets," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 35-52, March.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    6. Jukka Isohätälä & Alistair Milne & Donald Robertson, 2020. "The Net Worth Trap: Investment and Output Dynamics in the Presence of Financing Constraints," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-32, August.
    7. Chen Yu-Fu & Funke Michael & Glanemann Nicole, 2013. "Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong’s currency board," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 373-393, September.
    8. Bai, Yizhou & Xue, Cheng, 2021. "An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
    10. MacDonald, Ronald & Moore, Michael J., 2001. "The spot-forward relationship revisited: an ERM perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 29-52, March.
    11. Melvin, Michael & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Exchange rate management in emerging markets: Intervention via an electronic limit order book," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 54-63, September.
    12. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    13. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Andrew Tsang, 2022. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in the main and the satellite Renminbi exchange rate markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 606-628, May.
    14. Fratianni, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2017. "The tale of two great crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 5-31.
    15. Zenón Quispe, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a Dollarized Economy: the Case of Peru," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 167-206, July-Dece.
    16. Dean Corbae & Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 1998. "Endogenous realignments and the sustainability of a target," Working Papers 1994-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Kuersteiner, Guido M. & Phillips, David C. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "Effective sterilized foreign exchange intervention? Evidence from a rule-based policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 118-138.
    18. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    19. Kempa, Bernd & Nelles, Michael, 1998. "On the Viability of Exchange Rate Target Zones in a Mundell-Fleming Model with Stochastic Output Shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 603-619, October.
    20. Frachot, Antoine, 1996. "A reexamination of the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 419-437, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate target zone; Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process; Ito’s lemma; Kumer function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65078. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.