IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/57316.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of Business Failure: A Time Series Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Assadian, Afsaneh
  • Cebula, Richard

Abstract

This paper seeks to empirically analyze the determinants of the business failure rate, i.e., the proportion of businesses that fail. This issue is of obvious importance due to its ramifications for resource allocation, especially that of financial capital, physical capital, and labor. This analysis uses annual time series data for the period 1955-1989 to analyze the topic, finding that the business failure rate is a decreasing function of: the population growth rate; the inflation rate of the CPI; the per capita real income growth rate; and the growth rate of the nominal wage rate. In addition, the business failure rate is an increasing function of the nominal average interest rate yield on Moody’s Ass-rated corporate bonds. Among other things, given the impact of the Federal budget deficit upon the Moody’s Aaa-rated corporate bond rate, it would seem that deficits can indirectly lead to a rise in the business failure rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Assadian, Afsaneh & Cebula, Richard, 1989. "Determinants of Business Failure: A Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 57316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57316
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/57316/1/MPRA_paper_57316.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Post, Gerald V. & Moon, Soo-Young, 1988. "A pooled cross-section time-series approach to business failures in 18 U.S. cities," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-56, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    2. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    3. Kitchen, John & Orden, David, 1991. "Effects of Fiscal Policy on Agriculture and the Rural Economy," Staff Reports 278556, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Carlos Vieira, 2004. "The Deficit?Interest Rate Connection: an empirical assessment of the EU," Economics Working Papers 5_2004, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    5. Lillian Cheung & Amnon Levy, 1998. "An integrative analysis of business bankruptcy in Australia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 149-167, June.
    6. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 154-177, April.
    7. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "Current Evidence on the Impact of Budget Deficits on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Debt Issues of the U.S. Treasury: An Analysis with Robustness Tests," MPRA Paper 55923, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Murthy, N. R. Vasudeva & Phillips, Joseph M., 1996. "The relationship between budget deficits and capital inflows: Further econometric evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 485-494.
    10. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    11. Onyemachi Maxwell Ogbulu & Lezaasi Lenee Torbira & Chizoba Lynda Umezinwa, 2015. "Assessment of the Impact of Fiscal Policy Operations on Stock Price Performance: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 190-202, April.
    12. Richard J. Cebula, 1997. "A Note on the Impact of Structural Federal Budget Deficits on Commercial Bank Interest Rates, 1963-1994," Public Finance Review, , vol. 25(4), pages 442-450, July.
    13. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard, 2006. "Identifying Determinants of the Cost of Long Term Borrowing for U.S. Firms: Insights for Management," MPRA Paper 49647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. David Alan Aschauer, 1990. "Finite Horizons, Intertemporal Substitution, and Fiscal Policy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 18(1), pages 77-91, January.
    15. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of budget deficits and other factors on the ex post real interest rate yield on tax-free municipal bonds in the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1297-1302, October.
    16. Stylianou Tasos, 2012. "Does Government Debt Promote Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis with Structural Breaks for the Economy of China," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 229-248, December.
    17. Richard Cebula, 1998. "Empirical note on the impact of federal government budget deficits on bank mortgage rates in the US, 1963-1995," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 365-367.
    18. Hsing Yu, 2017. "Is Real Depreciation or More Government Deficit Expansionary? The Case of Slovenia," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 50-56, April.
    19. Sinai, Allen, 2006. "Deficits, expected deficits, financial markets, and the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-101, March.
    20. Richard J Cebula, 2004. "The Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on U.S. Treasury Notes, 1979-2001," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-18, March.
    21. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business failure rate; population growth; inflation; wage growth; interest rates; budget deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.