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Causality between Stock Market Index and Macroeconomic Variables: A Case Study for Malaysia

Author

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  • Abdullah, Ahmad Monir
  • Saiti, Buerhan
  • Masih, Abul Mansur M.

Abstract

The causal relations and dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables and stock market index are important in the formulation of a country’s macroeconomic policy. In this study, to investigate the lead-lag relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables, we employ several conventional time-series techniques and a recently introduced method – wavelet analysis - to economics and finance. The data used in this paper is the monthly data of the selected macroeconomic variables such as (1) Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, (2) exchange rate, (3) inflation, (4) government bond yield, (5) short-term interest rate and (6) export over the period of January 1996 to September 2013. Our findings tend to suggest that a cointegrating relationship does exist between KLCI and selected macroeconomic variables. The results of the error correction model, the generalized variance decompositions as well as the wavelet cross-correlation analysis suggest that the short-term interest rate, KLCI and government bond yields are exogenous variables; especially, the short-term interest rate is the most leading variable. Policy makers may concentrate on the adjustment and control of the short-term interest rate in order to achieve the desired results for the target economic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullah, Ahmad Monir & Saiti, Buerhan & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "Causality between Stock Market Index and Macroeconomic Variables: A Case Study for Malaysia," MPRA Paper 56987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56987
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Umar Ahmad & Adam Abdullah & Zunaidah Sulong & Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, 2015. "The Review of Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(5), pages 154-181, May.
    2. Majeed, Raseena & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Impact of macroeconomic variables on shariah stock markets: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 106118, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Market; Causality; Macroeconomic variables; Time-series techniques; Wavelet Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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