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Modeling the stability dynamics of Ukrainian banking system


  • Kozmenko, Olha
  • Kuzmenko, Olha


The article is stressed on the stability indicator of the banking system as binary variable, which takes a single value in unstable condition and non-zero value otherwise. It is offered to explore stability dynamics of Ukrainian banking system as time series, suggested to perform stability indicator on the basis of stationary time series verification by adaptation of the Forster-Stewart method to the peculiarities of the research subject. In the article it is relevant to identify the main factors of stability indicator formation, realize decomposition of a system - forming components of the variable to be explained on the base of autoregression trend-seasonal additive or multiplicative models.

Suggested Citation

  • Kozmenko, Olha & Kuzmenko, Olha, 2013. "Modeling the stability dynamics of Ukrainian banking system," MPRA Paper 50841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50841

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Keuzenkamp, H.A. & Magnus, J.R., 1995. "On tests and significance in econometrics," Other publications TiSEM 1808e2e0-3805-4999-b9a1-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Fumio Hayashi & Joseph Altonji & Laurence Kotlikoff, 1991. "Risk-Sharing, Altruism, and the Factor Structure of Consumption," NBER Working Papers 3834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    4. Keuzenkamp, Hugo A. & Magnus, Jan R., 1995. "On tests and significance in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 5-24, May.
    5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Yehning Chen, 1999. "Banking Panics: The Role of the First-Come, First-Served Rule and Information Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 946-968, October.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason, 1992. "Econometric Software: A User's View," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 165-187, Fall.
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    More about this item


    stability index of the banking system; stability dynamics; time series; decomposition analysis; regression analysis.;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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