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Testing for the Credit Crunch in Trinidad and Tobago Using an Alternative Method

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  • Khemraj, Tarron
  • Primus, Keyra

Abstract

This paper examines whether the decline in loans to the private sector in Trinidad and Tobago from mid-2009 was caused by a demand-induced or the credit crunch phenomenon. The study presents an alternative methodology for estimating the credit crunch. The new methodology emphasizes an aggregate banking model in which excess liquidity and interest rate spread are important stylized facts. The analytical framework is used to identify shocks to loans and deposits that are found to be empirically related to excess liquidity. Using Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS), we estimate auxiliary regressions of random deposit and loan shocks. The results suggest that weak loan demand instead of a supply-induced credit crunch best explains the decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Khemraj, Tarron & Primus, Keyra, 2013. "Testing for the Credit Crunch in Trinidad and Tobago Using an Alternative Method," MPRA Paper 47372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47372
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47372/1/MPRA_paper_47372.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2011. "Slowdown of credit flows in Jordan in the wake of the global financial crisis: Supply or demand driven?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 562-573.
    2. Sylvanus Ikhide, 2003. "Was There a Credit Crunch in Namibia Between 1996-2000?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 269-290, November.
    3. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aynaoui, Karim El, 2010. "Excess liquidity, bank pricing rules, and monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 923-933, May.
    4. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2004. "The credit crunch in East Asia: what can bank excess liquid assets tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 27-49, February.
    5. Khemraj, Tarron, 2010. "The simple analytics of oligopoly banking in developing economies," MPRA Paper 22266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nikolaou, Kleopatra & Drehmann, Mathias, 2009. "Funding liquidity risk: definition and measurement," Working Paper Series 1024, European Central Bank.
    7. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Garcia, Rene, 1977. "Disequilibrium Econometrics for Business Loans," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1187-1204, July.
    8. Nada Oulidi & Laurence Allain, 2009. "Credit Market in Morocco; A Disequilibrium Approach," IMF Working Papers 09/53, International Monetary Fund.
    9. repec:idn:journl:v:14:y:2012:i:3f:p:1-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2005. "Political Violence and Excess Liquidity in Egypt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 542-557.
    11. Tarron Khemraj, 2007. "What does excess bank liquidity say about the loan market in Less Developed Countries?," Working Papers 60, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    12. Tarron Khemraj, 2009. "Excess liquidity and the foreign currency constraint: the case of monetary management in Guyana," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2073-2084.
    13. Carpio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 1993. "Excess liquidity and monetary overhangs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 523-533, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Crunch; Excess Liquidity; Loanable Funds Model;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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