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Political Violence and Excess Liquidity in Egypt

  • David Fielding
  • Anja Shortland

In this article we estimate a time-series model of excess liquidity in the Egyptian banking sector. While financial liberalisation and financial stability are found to have reduced excess liquidity, these effects have been offset by an increase in the number of violent political incidents arising from conflict between radical Islamic groups and the Egyptian state. The link between political events and financial outcomes provides a rationale for economic policy interventions by the international community in response to increases in political instability.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00220380500092580
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Development Studies.

Volume (Year): 41 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 542-557

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:41:y:2005:i:4:p:542-557
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  1. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua & Hoffmaister, Alexander, 2000. "The credit crunch in East Asia : what can bank excess liquid assets tell us ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2483, The World Bank.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1993. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 4486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  5. Baltensperger, Ernst, 1980. "Alternative approaches to the theory of the banking firm," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-37, January.
  6. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  7. David Fielding, 2003. "Modelling Political Instability and Economic Performance: Israeli Investment during the "Intifada"," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(277), pages 159-186, February.
  8. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2002. "How does Political Violence Affect Currency Substitution? Evidence from Egypt," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/6, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  9. Fedderke, Johannes & Klitgaard, Robert, 1998. "Economic Growth and Social Indicators: An Exploratory Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 455-89, April.
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