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The Impact of International Oil Prices on Industrial Production: The Case of Thailand

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  • Jiranyakul, Komain

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of international oil prices on Thailand’s industrial production using Johansen cointegration test. The results show that U.S. dollar real exchange rate does not affect the economy’s industrial production index, while oil prices, and real money supply significantly impose a positive impact on the index. The positive relationship between industrial production index and oil prices indicates that the manufacturing sector can adjust itself to higher costs of production in the long run. In the short run, industrial production are affected by real money supply, real exchange rate and international oil prices. However, any deviation from a stationary long-run equilibrium in the short run will be corrected in a short period of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiranyakul, Komain, 2006. "The Impact of International Oil Prices on Industrial Production: The Case of Thailand," MPRA Paper 47035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47035
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47035/1/MPRA_paper_47035.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Ejaz & Javed Iqbal, 2021. "Estimation and Forecasting of Industrial Production Index," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, Jan-June.
    2. Eleftherios Giovanis, 2010. "Application of logit model and self‐organizing maps (SOMs) for the prediction of financial crisis periods in US economy," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(2), pages 98-125, June.
    3. Nayef ALSHAMMARI & Hanouf ALDHAFEERI, 2020. "Patterns Of Industrial Development In An Oil-Based Economy: Kuwait 2000-2015," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 117-128.
    4. Adel Mohsen & Soo Chua & Che Sab, 2015. "Determinants of industrial output in Syria," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. A. Sankaran & A. Vadivel & M. Abdul Jamal, 2020. "Effects of dynamic variables on industrial output in one of the world’s fastest-growing countries: case evidence from India," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Zhang, Feng & Huang, Yongming & Nan, Xiaoli, 2022. "The price volatility of natural resource commodity and global economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from US economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Obayelu, Abiodun & Ogunmola, Omotoso & Obayelu, Oluwakemi & Adeyemi, Oluwatosin, 2021. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Food Production Output in Oil Producing and Exporting Countries: The Case Study of Nigeria," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315394, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Y lmaz BAYAR & Cuneyt KILIC, 2014. "Effects of Oil and Natural Gas Prices on Industrial Production in the Eurozone Member Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 238-247.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial production ; oil prices; VAR; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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