The Impact of International Oil Prices on Industrial Production: The Case of Thailand
This paper analyzes the impact of international oil prices on Thailand’s industrial production using Johansen cointegration test. The results show that U.S. dollar real exchange rate does not affect the economy’s industrial production index, while oil prices, and real money supply significantly impose a positive impact on the index. The positive relationship between industrial production index and oil prices indicates that the manufacturing sector can adjust itself to higher costs of production in the long run. In the short run, industrial production are affected by real money supply, real exchange rate and international oil prices. However, any deviation from a stationary long-run equilibrium in the short run will be corrected in a short period of time.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2006|
|Publication status:||Published in NIDA Economic Review 2.1(2006): pp. 35-42|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
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- Johansen, Soren, 1992.
"Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
- Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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