Una aproximación metodológica al Balance Estructural: Aplicación a Ecuador
[A Methodological Approach to Structural Balance: Application to Ecuador]
Since the crisis experienced in recent years and its close relationship with the state of the public finances of countries, fiscal sustainability and its impact on the real economy, there is a growing interest regarding the study and empirical applications related to the generation of areas to ensure fiscal health of nations. With this background, the present work tries to develop a methodology top down for estimating the structural balance of Ecuador´s NFPS from the compilation of fiscal statistics in the country for the quarterly period: 2000 I – 2012 II. Adjustments are made to the non – oil revenues over the business cycle, current expenditure and oil revenues regarding the divergence in the price of WTI crude versus medium term. Then it comes to assessing the causal hypothesis of the position of the primary outcomes observed with the variation of WTI crude and explanatory relation is observed. So trough the implementation of structural balance in the country the political authorities could achieve three primary objectives: to establish fiscal rules consistent with potential output of the economy, to assess the will of the fiscal policymaker and ultimately ensure sustainability prosecutor of the Ecuadorian economy in the long run.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
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- Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Mauricio Villafuerte & Thomas Baunsgaard & Christine J. Richmond, 2012. "Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/04, International Monetary Fund.
- Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
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