Focusing on the Focusing Illusion..
The paper presents evidence that validate the focusing illusion. Specifically, the forecasted impact of a basketball championship on students’ subjective well-being was exaggerated because of their intense focus on the event. However, the self-reported states of being for life domains not closely associated with the focal event remained stable throughout the survey periods. Further analysis of the data finds that the exaggerated level of subjective well-being brought about by the focusing illusion had minimal spillover effects on the reported levels of subjective well-being for the other life domains.
|Date of creation:||14 Jan 2013|
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"Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt5qh6142m, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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