IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v171y2020icp35-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does it pay to bet on your favourite to win? Evidence on experienced utility from the 2018 FIFA World Cup experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Kossuth, Lajos
  • Powdthavee, Nattavudh
  • Harris, Donna
  • Chater, Nick

Abstract

This paper examined whether people gained significant emotional benefits from not engaging in emotional hedging – betting against the occurrence of desired outcomes. Using the 2018 FIFA World Cup as the setting for our exploratory study, we found substantial reluctance among England supporters to bet against the success of the England football team in the tournament. This decision not to offset a potential loss through hedging did not pay off in people's happiness following an England win. However, it was associated with a sharp decrease in people's happiness following an England loss, which was a similar experience among subjects who were randomly assigned to bet for an England win. Post-match happiness was relatively more stable among those who chose to hedge or were randomly allocated to hedge. We conclude that people do not hedge enough partly because they tend to overestimate the expected diagnostic cost of betting against their social identity, while underestimate the negative emotional impact from betting on their favourite to win when they did not win.

Suggested Citation

  • Kossuth, Lajos & Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Harris, Donna & Chater, Nick, 2020. "Does it pay to bet on your favourite to win? Evidence on experienced utility from the 2018 FIFA World Cup experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 35-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:171:y:2020:i:c:p:35-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.01.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016726812030007X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.01.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregory W. Fischer & Mark S. Kamlet & Stephen E. Fienberg & David Schkade, 1986. "Risk Preferences for Gains and Losses in Multiple Objective Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(9), pages 1065-1086, September.
    2. Christopher J. Boyce & Alex M. Wood & James Banks & Andrew E. Clark & Gordon D. A. Brown, 2013. "Money, Well-Being, and Loss Aversion: Does an Income Loss Have a Greater Effect on Well-Being Than an Equivalent Income Gain?," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" halshs-00941907, HAL.
    3. repec:pri:cepsud:125krueger is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Meulbroek, Lisa, 2005. "Company Stock in Pension Plans: How Costly Is It?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 443-474, October.
    5. Reto Odermatt & Alois Stutzer, 2019. "(Mis-)Predicted Subjective Well-Being Following Life Events," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 245-283.
    6. Adler, Matthew D. & Dolan, Paul & Kavetsos, Georgios, 2017. "Would you choose to be happy? Tradeoffs between happiness and the other dimensions of life in a large population survey," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 60-73.
    7. George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1209-1248.
    8. Iris Bohnet & Fiona Greig & Benedikt Herrmann & Richard Zeckhauser, 2008. "Betrayal Aversion: Evidence from Brazil, China, Oman, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 294-310, March.
    9. Daniel J. Benjamin & Ori Heffetz & Miles S. Kimball & Alex Rees-Jones, 2012. "What Do You Think Would Make You Happier? What Do You Think You Would Choose?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2083-2110, August.
    10. Daniel Kahneman & Richard H. Thaler, 2006. "Anomalies: Utility Maximization and Experienced Utility," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 221-234, Winter.
    11. Cooper, Ian & Kaplanis, Evi, 1994. "Home Bias in Equity Portfolios, Inflation Hedging, and International Capital Market Equilibrium," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 45-60.
    12. Daniel Kahneman & Peter P. Wakker & Rakesh Sarin, 1997. "Back to Bentham? Explorations of Experienced Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 375-406.
    13. Daniel Kahneman & Alan B. Krueger & David Schkade & Norbert Schwarz & Arthur A. Stone, 2006. "Would You Be Happier If You Were Richer? A Focusing Illusion," Working Papers 77, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    14. Daniel Zizzo, 2010. "Experimenter demand effects in economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 13(1), pages 75-98, March.
    15. Tang, Simone & Morewedge, Carey M. & Larrick, Richard P. & Klein, Jill G., 2017. "Disloyalty aversion: Greater reluctance to bet against close others than the self," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 1-13.
    16. David E. Bell, 1982. "Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 961-981, October.
    17. Shlomo Benartzi, 2001. "Excessive Extrapolation and the Allocation of 401(k) Accounts to Company Stock," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1747-1764, October.
    18. Joshua D. Coval & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 1999. "Home Bias at Home: Local Equity Preference in Domestic Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2045-2073, December.
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Alan B. Krueger & David Schkade & Norbert Schwarz & Arthur A. Stone, 2006. "Would You Be Happier If You Were Richer? A Focusing Illusion," Working Papers 77, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stadler Blank, Ashley & Loveland, Katherine E. & Houghton, David M., 2021. "Game changing innovation or bad beat? How sports betting can reduce fan engagement," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 365-374.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akay, Alpaslan & Bargain, Olivier & Jara, Xavier, 2017. "Back to Bentham, Should We? Large-Scale Comparison of Experienced versus Decision Utility," IZA Discussion Papers 10907, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Akay, Alpaslan & Bargain, Olivier & Jara Tamayo, H. Xavier, 2023. "Experienced versus decision utility: large-scale comparison for income-leisure preferences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117746, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Koen Decancq & Marc Fleurbaey & Erik Schokkaert, 2015. "Happiness, Equivalent Incomes and Respect for Individual Preferences," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82, pages 1082-1106, December.
    4. Reto Odermatt & Alois Stutzer, 2019. "(Mis-)Predicted Subjective Well-Being Following Life Events," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 245-283.
    5. Schwandt, Hannes, 2013. "Unmet Aspirations as an Explanation for the Age U-shape in Human Wellbeing," IZA Discussion Papers 7604, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Jan-Emmanuel De Neve & George Ward & Femke De Keulenaer & Bert Van Landeghem & Georgios Kavetsos & Michael I. Norton, 2018. "The Asymmetric Experience of Positive and Negative Economic Growth: Global Evidence Using Subjective Well-Being Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 362-375, May.
    7. Krekel, Christian & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Does the presence of wind turbines have negative externalities for people in their surroundings? Evidence from well-being data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 221-238.
    8. Frijters, Paul & Krekel, Christian & Ulker, Aydogan, 2023. "Should bads be inflicted all at once, like Machiavelli said? Evidence from life-satisfaction data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1-27.
    9. Alpaslan Akay & Olivier Bargain & H. Xavier Jara, 2020. "‘Fair’ welfare comparisons with heterogeneous tastes: subjective versus revealed preferences," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 55(1), pages 51-84, June.
    10. Schwandt, Hannes, 2016. "Unmet aspirations as an explanation for the age U-shape in wellbeing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 75-87.
    11. Krekel, Christian & MacKerron, George, 2023. "Back to Edgeworth? Estimating the Value of Time Using Hedonic Experiences," IZA Discussion Papers 16308, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Andreas Knabe & Steffen Rätzel & Ronnie Schöb & Joachim Weimann, 2010. "Dissatisfied with Life but Having a Good Day: Time-use and Well-being of the Unemployed," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(547), pages 867-889, September.
    13. Moschion, Julie & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2018. "The welfare implications of addictive substances: A longitudinal study of life satisfaction of drug users," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 206-221.
    14. Yasar, Rusen, 2018. "Subjective well-being and income: A compromise between Easterlin paradox and its critiques," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-23.
    15. Odermatt, Reto & Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Stutzer, Alois, 2021. "Are newly self-employed overly optimistic about their future well-being?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    16. Junyi Chai, 2023. "Subjective Happiness in Behavioral Contracts," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(7), pages 2245-2260, October.
    17. Reto Odermatt & Nattavudh Powdthavee & Alois Stutzer, 2017. "Overoptimistic Entrepreneurs: Predicting Wellbeing Consequences of Self-Employment," PIER Discussion Papers 71, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Phelim Boyle & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2012. "Keynes Meets Markowitz: The Trade-Off Between Familiarity and Diversification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 253-272, February.
    19. Edsel Beja, 2015. "The Focusing Illusion and Happiness: Evidence Using College Basketball Championship," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 873-885, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedging; Happiness; Social identity; Wellbeing; World cup; Experienced utility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:171:y:2020:i:c:p:35-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.