IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/101074.html

Consumer Expectations Survey and Quarterly Social Weather Survey: Evidence of Convergent Validity and Causality

Author

Listed:
  • Beja, Edsel Jr.

Abstract

The paper tests the convergent validity and causality of the Consumer Expectations Survey from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Quarterly Social Weather Survey from the Social Weather Stations. The results indicate that there is convergent validity; and that there is bi-direction causality. Further results reveal that both share a common set of determinants. Overall, the findings imply that the Consumer Expectations Survey and the Quarterly Social Weather Survey embody comparable information. As such, one can be a proxy measure of the other. For policy, the findings support the view that a monetary approach for controlling the overall performance of the country, especially with regard to the inflation rate, in conjunction with a fiscal approach for securing the provision of basic social services are key to an effective management of sentiments and for an improvement in the quality of life.

Suggested Citation

  • Beja, Edsel Jr., 2019. "Consumer Expectations Survey and Quarterly Social Weather Survey: Evidence of Convergent Validity and Causality," MPRA Paper 101074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101074/1/MPRA_paper_101074.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Robert Sugden, 2005. "Experienced Utility as a Standard of Policy Evaluation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 161-181, September.
    3. Mapa, Dennis S. & Castillo, Kristelle & Francisco, Krizia, 2015. "Rice Price, Job Misery, Hunger Incidence: Need to Track Few More Statistical Indicators for the Poor," MPRA Paper 61990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Andrew E. Clark, 2018. "Four Decades of the Economics of Happiness: Where Next?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(2), pages 245-269, June.
    5. repec:pri:cepsud:125krueger is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Sabina Alkire, James E. Foster, Suman Seth, Maria Emma Santos, Jose M. Roche and Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 9 - Distribution and Dynamics," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp090_ch9.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    7. Mark Setterfield, 2009. "An index of macroeconomic performance," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 625-649.
    8. Sabina Alkire, James E. Foster, Suman Seth, Maria Emma Santos, José M. Roche and Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 7 - Data and Analysis," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp088_ch7.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    9. Daniel Kahneman & Alan B. Krueger & David Schkade & Norbert Schwarz & Arthur A. Stone, 2006. "Would You Be Happier If You Were Richer? A Focusing Illusion," Working Papers 77, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    10. Easterlin, Richard A., 1974. "Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot? Some Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 111773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    12. Alex Michalos, 1985. "Multiple discrepancies theory (MDT)," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 347-413, May.
    13. repec:qeh:ophiwp:ophiwp090 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Sabina Alkire, James E. Foster, Suman Seth, Maria Emma Santos, José M. Roche and Paola Ballon, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 2 - The Framework," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp083_ch2.pdf, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    15. repec:qeh:ophiwp:ophiwp088 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Edsel Beja Jr., 2013. "Subjective Well-Being Approach to the Valuation of International Development: Evidence for the Millennium Development Goals," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 141-159, March.
    17. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    18. repec:qeh:ophiwp:ophiwp083 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Edsel Beja, 2012. "Subjective Well-Being Approach to Environmental Valuation: Evidence for Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 109(2), pages 243-266, November.
    21. Edsel Beja, 2015. "The Focusing Illusion and Happiness: Evidence Using College Basketball Championship," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 873-885, April.
    22. Daniel Kahneman & Jack L. Knetsch & Richard H. Thaler, 1991. "Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-206, Winter.
    23. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    24. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2006. "Some Uses of Happiness Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, Winter.
    25. Helliwell, John & Layard, Richard & Sachs, Jeffrey, 2012. "World happiness report," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 47487, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    26. Edsel Beja & David Yap, 2013. "Counting Happiness from the Individual Level to the Group Level," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 621-637, November.
    27. Daniel Kahneman & Alan B. Krueger & David Schkade & Norbert Schwarz & Arthur A. Stone, 2006. "Would You Be Happier If You Were Richer? A Focusing Illusion," Working Papers 77, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    28. Edsel L. Beja, 2016. "Measuring economic ill-being using objective and subjective indicators: evidence for the Philippines," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 151-166, March.
    29. Edsel L Beja, 2018. "Migrant-family background and subjective well-being: Evidence using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 15(3), pages 398-408, July.
    30. Edsel L. Beja Jr., 2017. "Subjective well-being approach for testing money illusion-evidence using data from Social Weather Stations," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 54(1), pages 47-62, June.
    31. Alkire, Sabina & Foster, James & Seth, Suman & Santos, Maria Emma & Roche, Jose Manuel & Ballon, Paola, 2015. "Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199689491.
    32. Edsel L. Beja, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Macroeconomic Performance on Happiness: Evidence for the EU," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 52(3), pages 184-190, May.
    33. Diwa C Guinigundo, 2016. "The role of expectations in inflation dynamics in the Philippines - has it changed following the global financial crisis?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 291-302, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beja, Edsel Jr., 2021. "Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index: Evidence on their Reliability and Validity," MPRA Paper 108501, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthys, Marie-Luise & Acharya, Sushant & Khatri, Sanjaya, 2021. "“Before cardamom, we used to face hardship”: Analyzing agricultural commercialization effects in Nepal through a local concept of the Good Life," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Kaizhi Yu & Yun Zhang & Hong Zou & Chenchen Wang, 2019. "Absolute Income, Income Inequality and the Subjective Well-Being of Migrant Workers in China: Toward an Understanding of the Relationship and Its Psychological Mechanisms," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-27, July.
    3. Beja, Edsel Jr., 2021. "Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index: Evidence on their Reliability and Validity," MPRA Paper 108501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Martyna Kobus & Olga Półchłopek & Gaston Yalonetzky, 2019. "Inequality and Welfare in Quality of Life Among OECD Countries: Non-parametric Treatment of Ordinal Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-232, May.
    5. Beja, Edsel Jr., 2011. "Subjective well-being approach to the valuation of income inequality," MPRA Paper 34177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Abre-Rehmat Qurat-ul-Ann & Faisal Mehmood Mirza, 2021. "Multidimensional Energy Poverty in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from Household Level Micro Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 211-258, May.
    7. Londari Yamarak & Kevin A. Parton, 2023. "Impacts of mining projects in Papua New Guinea on livelihoods and poverty in indigenous mining communities," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(1), pages 13-27, January.
    8. Jing Yang & Pundarik Mukhopadhaya, 2019. "Is the ADB’s Conjecture on Upward Trend in Poverty for China Right? An Analysis of Income and Multidimensional Poverty in China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 451-477, June.
    9. Gardner, Jonathan & Oswald, Andrew J., 2007. "Money and mental wellbeing: A longitudinal study of medium-sized lottery wins," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 49-60, January.
    10. Pinaki Das & Bibek Paria & Shama Firdaush, 2021. "Juxtaposing Consumption Poverty and Multidimensional Poverty: A Study in Indian Context," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 469-501, January.
    11. Tavares, Fernando Flores & Betti, Gianni, 2021. "The pandemic of poverty, vulnerability, and COVID-19: Evidence from a fuzzy multidimensional analysis of deprivations in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Zaira Najam & John Gibson, 2022. "Does intra‐country poverty convergence depend on spatial spillovers and the type of poverty measure? Evidence from Pakistan," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 516-535, September.
    13. Robin Maximilian Stetzka & Stefan Winter, 2023. "How rational is gambling?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1432-1488, September.
    14. Lidia Ceriani & Sergio Olivieri & Marco Ranzani, 2023. "Housing, imputed rent, and household welfare," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 21(1), pages 131-168, March.
    15. Hajdu, Tamás & Hajdu, Gábor, 2011. "A hasznosság és a relatív jövedelem kapcsolatának vizsgálata magyar adatok segítségével [Examining the relation of utility and relative income using Hungarian data]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 56-73.
    16. Gaurav Datt, 2019. "Multidimensional poverty in the Philippines, 2004–2013: How much do choices for weighting, identification and aggregation matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1103-1128, October.
    17. Nisreen Salti & Jad Chaaban & Alexandra Irani & Rima Al Mokdad, 2021. "A Multi-Dimensional Measure of Well-being among Youth: The Case of Palestinian Refugee Youth in Lebanon," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 1-34, February.
    18. Dutta, Indranil & Nogales, Ricardo & Yalonetzky, Gaston, 2021. "Endogenous weights and multidimensional poverty: A cautionary tale," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Wajiha Haq & Mir Azam & Zaki Babar & Saad Amir & Fareyha Said, 2024. "Investigation of multidimensional poverty in Pakistan at the national, regional, and provincial level," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Juan-Francisco Sánchez-García & María-del-Carmen Sánchez-Antón & Rosa Badillo-Amador & María-del-Carmen Marco-Gil & Juan-Vicente LLinares-Ciscar & Susana Álvarez-Díez, 2019. "A New Extension of Bourguignon and Chakravarty Index to Measure Educational Poverty and Its Application to the OECD Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(2), pages 479-501, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.