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Causal relationship between saving, investment and economic growth for India – what does the relation imply?

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  • Jangili, Ramesh

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between saving, investment and economic growth for India over the period 1950-51 to 2007-08. The literature on the role of saving in promoting economic growth generally points to saving led growth. However, few studies show evidence for growth driven saving and some suggest no relationship. In theory, saving may stimulate economic growth, economic growth may also induce saving. This paper adds to the literature by analysing the existence and nature of these causal relationships. The present analysis focuses on India, where saving rate has been the most pronounced. The co-integration analysis suggests that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship. The results of Granger causality test show that higher saving and investment lead to higher economic growth, but the reciprocal causality is not observed. Further, it is empirically evident that saving and investment led growth is coming from the household sector. It may be inferred from the results that India is not too close to the technological frontier and hence not catching up with the new technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jangili, Ramesh, 2011. "Causal relationship between saving, investment and economic growth for India – what does the relation imply?," MPRA Paper 40002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40002
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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    3. Sinha, Dipendra, 1996. "Saving and Economic Growth in India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 49(4), pages 637-647.
    4. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 83-109.
    5. Dipendra Sinha & Tapen Sinha, 2008. "Relationships among household saving, public saving, corporate saving and economic growth in India," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 181-186.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Olufemi B. Obembe, 2017. "Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Saving and Economic Growth in Selected African Countries (1981–2014)," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 2(1), pages 110-129, January.
    2. Inder Sekhar Yadav & Phanindra Goyari & R. K. Mishra, 2018. "Saving, Investment and Growth in India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 55-68, March.
    3. Philippe Ferreira, 2012. "Déficits extérieurs et déclin de l'épargne intérieure sont des obstacles au financement du développement de l'Inde," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(3), pages 115-136.
    4. Dinabandhu Sethi & V. V. Subba Rao & Asit Ranjan Mohanty, 2020. "Threshold level of fiscal deficit: revisiting FRBMA limit in Indian states," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(2), pages 233-249, December.
    5. Sachin N. Mehta & Gaurang D. Rami, 2014. "Nexus Between Savings, Investment And Economic Growth In India," Working papers 2014-12-12, Voice of Research.
    6. Sallahuddin Hassan & Zalila Othman & Zalina Mohd Mohaideen, 2018. "The relationship between economic growth and employee provident fund: an empirical evidence from Malaysia," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(2), pages 229-242, April.
    7. T. G. Saji & Ratheesh K. Nair, 2017. "Investor-centric strategies for Indian mutual fund industry: inferring from the behavior of individual investors," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 44(3), pages 209-225, September.
    8. Dr. Tariq Ahmad BHAT & Tariq Ahmad LONE & Dr. Khursheed Hussain DAR, 2021. "The co-integration and causal relationship between saving and economic growth in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 239-246, Spring.
    9. Abdul Mansoor & Baserat Sultana & Romana Saeed, 2018. "Analyzing the Savings-Investment Trend in a Panel of G-7 Countries," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(2), pages 147-154.
    10. Yilmaz BAYAR, 2014. "Savings, Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Economic Growth in Emerging Asian Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(8), pages 1106-1122, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saving; Investment; Economic growth; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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