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Debt and nonlinear fiscal policy: evidence from the states

  • Gray, Jo Anna
  • Stone, Joe A.

Evidence from a half century of experience by states identifies nonlinearities in the effects of debt and fiscal policy on growth. Effects are Keynesian for low to moderate levels of debt and stimulus but anti Keynesian for sufficiently high levels of debt or stimulus. Results are broadly consistent with models by Barro (1999), Judd (1987), and others.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39731/1/MPRA_paper_39731.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39731.

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Date of creation: 06 Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39731
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
  2. Judd, Kenneth, 1987. "Debt and distortionary taxation in a simple perfect foresight model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 51-72, July.
  3. Mofidi, Alaeddin & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Do State and Local Taxes Affect Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 686-91, November.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, April.
  5. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke & Richard S. Grossman & Madalina A. Ursu, 2013. "A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930," Economics Series Working Papers 120, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Bania, Neil & Gray, Jo Anna & Stone, Joe A., 2007. "Growth, Taxes, and Government Expenditures: Growth Hills for U.S. States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 60(2), pages 193-204, June.
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