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Economic Cycle Volatility in the World Economy and Prospects for Global Economic Equilibrium Recovery

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  • Konchyn, Vadym

Abstract

The article examines the problems of cyclical economic development in the world economy. The trends in economic development and the degree of economic cycle volatility in the world during the 1970-2010 are analyzed. The phenomenon of the Great Moderation as a period of achieving the long-term relative equilibrium in the global economy on methodological and empirical level is represented. On the basis of correlation and regression modeling the trends of real GDP and changes in consumer prices for economies are identified, on which nowadays predominantly the restoration of economic equilibrium depends in view of maintaining the existing global economic order. Scenarios of restoring the global economic equilibrium within the neoclassical and neokeynesian vision are outlined and alternative modern concepts of global economy transformation in the context of attempts to solve the problem of worsening cyclical economic development and economic instability are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Konchyn, Vadym, 2011. "Economic Cycle Volatility in the World Economy and Prospects for Global Economic Equilibrium Recovery," MPRA Paper 34272, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Oct 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic cycle volatility; Great Moderation; global economic equilibrium; neoclassical and neokeynesian approaches to economic policy; economic growth; growthonomics; inflationary and deflationary scenarios in global economy; steady-state economy; and technological singularity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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