How accurate are commercial-real-estate appraisals? evidence from 25 years of NCREIF sales data
In this study, we provide new evidence on the performance measurement and reporting of commercial real estate returns. We do so by examining the accuracy of commercial-real-estate appraisals that occurred prior to the sale of properties from the NCREIF National Property Index (“NPI”) during 1984 – 2010, a period which spans two up-and-down cycles of the market. We find that, on average, appraisals are more than 12% above, or below, subsequent sales prices that take place two quarters following the appraisal. Even in a portfolio context, allowing for offsetting positive and negative differences, appraisals are off by an average of 4% – 5 % of value, even after adjusting for capital appreciation during those two quarters. We also provide new evidence regarding how, and by how much, appraised values lag behind sales prices. We find that appraisals appear to lag the true sales prices, falling significantly below in hot markets and remaining significantly above in cold markets. This new evidence provides guidance to investors, regulators and others about how to interpret real-estate indices like the NPI that are based upon appraised values, in both a rising and falling market. Finally, we find that this “appraisal error” is largely systematic; we can explain more than half of the variation in the signed percentage difference in sales price and appraised value. Hence, appraisal errors are not due solely to property-specific heterogeneity.
|Date of creation:||25 May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mike Miles & Rebel Cole & David Guilkey, 1990. "A Different Look at Commercial Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 403-430.
- Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2004. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Transaction Frequency of Institutional Commercial Real Estate Investment Property," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 239-264, 06.
- Hoag, James W, 1980. " Towards Indices of Real Estate Value and Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 569-80, May.
- R. Brian Webb & Mike Miles & David Guilkey, 1992. "Transactions-Driven Commercial Real Estate Returns: The Panacea to Asset Allocation Models?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 325-357.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32589. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.