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Transactions‐Driven Commercial Real Estate Returns: The Panacea to Asset Allocation Models?

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  • R. Brian Webb
  • Mike Miles
  • David Guilkey

Abstract

A transactions‐driven commercial real estate return series is generated in this study to determine whether the reliance on appraised values in the estimation of real estate returns is the source of the reported underpricing of real estate relative to stocks, bonds, and bills when analyzed in a traditional mean‐variance setting. The reported underpricing of commercial real estate would be rational if transactions‐driven returns exhibit more variance than appraisal‐driven returns. While we find that transactions‐driven real estate returns have greater variance than appraisal‐driven returns for individual properties, most of the individual property risk is idiosyncratic and diversified away at the portfolio level. Real estate continues to be a dominate asset class in mean‐variance allocation models even when represented with transactions‐driven indices.1

Suggested Citation

  • R. Brian Webb & Mike Miles & David Guilkey, 1992. "Transactions‐Driven Commercial Real Estate Returns: The Panacea to Asset Allocation Models?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 325-357, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:20:y:1992:i:2:p:325-357
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00587
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    1. John F. Kain & John M. Quigley, 1975. "Introduction to "Housing Markets and Racial Discrimination: A Microeconomic Analysis"," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Markets and Racial Discrimination: A Microeconomic Analysis, pages 1-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John F. Kain & John M. Quigley, 1975. "Housing Markets and Racial Discrimination: A Microeconomic Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kain75-1, March.
    3. John F. Kain & John M. Quigley, 1975. "Racial Discrimination in Urban Housing Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Markets and Racial Discrimination: A Microeconomic Analysis, pages 56-91, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Mukesh K. Chaudhry & Rohan A. Christie-David & William H. Sackley, 1999. "Long-Term Structural Price Relationships in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 335-354.
    2. Susanne, Cannon & Rebel, Cole, 2011. "How Accurate Are Commercial Real Estate Appraisals? Evidence from 25 Years of NCREIF Sales Data," MPRA Paper 52621, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2011.
    3. Allan Din & Martin Hoesli & Andre Bender, 2001. "Environmental Variables and Real Estate Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 38(11), pages 1989-2000, October.
    4. Cannon, Susanne & Col, Rebel A., 2011. "How accurate are commercial-real-estate appraisals? evidence from 25 years of NCREIF sales data," MPRA Paper 32589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dirk P.M. De Wit, 1997. "Real Estate Diversification Benefits," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(2), pages 117-136.
    6. David Downs & Z. Güner, 2013. "Commercial Real Estate, Information Production and Market Activity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 282-298, February.
    7. Mark A. Sunderman & Ronald W. Spahr & John W. Birch & Russell M. Oster, 2000. "Impact of Ranch and Market Factors on an Index of Agricultural Holding Period Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(2), pages 209-234.
    8. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
    9. K.W. Chau, 1997. "Political Uncertainty and the Real Estate Risk Premiums in Hong Kong," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 297-316.
    10. David M. Geltner & Richard A. Graff & Michael S. Young, 1994. "Random Disaggregate Appraisal Error in Commercial Property: Evidence from the Russell-NCREIF Database," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 403-420.
    11. Walter Boudry & N. Coulson & Jarl Kallberg & Crocker Liu, 2013. "On Indexing Commercial Real Estate Properties and Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 617-639, November.
    12. John B. Corgel, 1997. "Property-by-Property Valuation of Publicly Traded Real Estate Firms," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(1), pages 77-90.
    13. Martin Hoesli & Jon Lekander & Witold Witkiewicz, 2004. "New International Evidence on Real Estate as a Portfolio Diversifier," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(2), pages 161-206.
    14. Deng, Yongheng & McMillen, Daniel P. & Sing, Tien Foo, 2014. "Matching indices for thinly-traded commercial real estate in Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-98.

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