IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/28117.html

Currency crises in Russia and other transition economies

Author

Listed:
  • Popov, Vladimir

Abstract

In recent years currency crises affected not only Southeast Asian countries, but transition economies as well. The Russian crisis of August 1998 was perhaps the most spectacular example, but it was preceded by currency crises in Bulgaria and Romania in 1996-97, in Ukraine and Belarus in 1997-98 and followed by the currency crisis in Kyrghyzstan and Georgia in late 1998, and in Kazakhstan in early 1999. Were these crises the result of financial contagion spreading in the global economy? Or were they of "the national making", but caused by reasons similar to that in Southeast Asia? The paper argues that neither of the above explanations is true and embraces a third explanation: currency crises in transition economies resulted mostly from domestic policy mistakes, but of different nature than those in Southeast Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Popov, Vladimir, 2001. "Currency crises in Russia and other transition economies," MPRA Paper 28117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28117/1/MPRA_paper_28117.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Macroeconomic Populism in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 2986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    3. E. Yasin, 1999. "Defeat or Retreat? (Russian Reforms and Financial Crisis)," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 2.
    4. Robert R. Kaufman & Barbara Stallings, 1991. "The Political Economy of Latin American Populism," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 15-43, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jens Holscher, 1997. "Economic dynamism in transition economies: Lessons from Germany," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 173-181.
    6. Popov, Vladimir, "undated". "A Russian Puzzle What Makes the Russian Economic Transformation a Special Case," WIDER Working Papers 295322, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. N. Shmelev, 1998. "Crisis inside Crisis," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 10.
    8. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    9. Padma Desai (ed.), 1997. "Going Global: Transition from Plan to Market in the World Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262041618, December.
    10. Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
    11. J. Stiglitz, 1999. "Whither Reform? Ten Years of the Transition," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 7.
    12. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1999. "More instruments and broader goals: moving toward the Post-Washington Consensus," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 19(1), pages 101-128.
    13. Mr. Daniel Citrin & Ashok Lahiri, 1995. "Policy Experiences and Issues in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Occasional Papers 1995/005, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Vladimir Popov, 1998. "Will Russia achieve fast economic growth?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 421-449.
    15. Robert H. Bates, 2005. "Political Reform," CID Working Papers 114, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    16. Stephany Griffith-Jones, 1997. "Causes and Lessons of the Mexican Peso Crisis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1997-132, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Vladimir Popov, 1999. "The Financial System in Russia Compared to Other Transition Economies: The Anglo-American Versus the German-Japanese Model*," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 41(1), pages 1-42, April.
    18. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Popov, Vladimir, 2005. "Exchange rate in a resource based economy in the short term: the case of Russia," MPRA Paper 28115, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2007. "Демократизация И Экономический Рост [Democratization and Economic Growth]," MPRA Paper 23012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2005. "Democracy and Growth Reconsidered: Why Economic Performance of New Democracies is not Encouraging," MPRA Paper 21606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2007. "Democratization, Quality of Institutions and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 19152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
    5. Sylvain Barthélémy & Virginie Gautier & Fabien Rondeau, 2024. "Early warning system for currency crises using long short‐term memory and gated recurrent unit neural networks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1235-1262, August.
    6. Daianu, Daniel & Vranceanu, Radu, 2003. "Subduing High Inflation In Romania. How To Better Monetary And Exchange Rate Mechanisms?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-36, September.
    7. Daniel, Betty C., 2000. "The timing of exchange rate collapse," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 765-784, December.
    8. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    10. Gabriel Di Bella & Andy Wolfe, 2008. "A Primer on Currency Unification and Exchange Rate Policy in Cuba: Lessons from Exchange Rate Unification in Transition Economies," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 18.
    11. Tassos Anastasatos & Constantina Manou, 2008. "Speculative Attacks on the Drachma and the Changeover to the Euro," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 49-77, November.
    12. Keskinsoy, Bilal, 2017. "Taxi, Takeoff and Landing: Behavioural Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 78129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mironova Yuliya, 2007. "Elaboration of crisis early warning system for Kyrgyzstan," EERC Working Paper Series 03-084e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    14. Miller, Sebastián J., 2011. "Why Do Populist-Outsiders Get Elected?: A Model of Strategic Populists," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3102, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Shuhua Liu & Christer K. Lindholm, 2006. "Assessing early warning signals of currency crises: a fuzzy clustering approach," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 179-202, October.
    16. Senanu Kwasi Klutse & Judit Sági & Gábor Dávid Kiss, 2022. "Exchange Rate Crisis among Inflation Targeting Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, May.
    17. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Yan, Isabel K., 2014. "Estimating and Testing Threshold Regression Models with Multiple Threshold Variables," MPRA Paper 54732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, "undated". "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are Twins?," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-20, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    19. Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Sugema, Iman, 2000. "Government bailouts and monetary disequilibrium: common fundamentals in the Mexican and East Asian currency crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 123-135, December.
    20. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.