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What Does Pakistan Have to Join Inflation Targeters Club, A Royal Flush or A Seven-Deuce Offsuit?

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  • Naqvi, Bushra
  • Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas

Abstract

The economic and institutional structure required for successful adoption and implementation of Inflation Targeting (IT) framework is often lacking in Emerging economies. In this paper, we evaluate these structures for the economy of Pakistan both qualitatively and quantitatively. Although our comprehensive assessment identifies non-realization of many core requirements but as literature and real time experience pointed out that IT can be a framework for emerging economies even in the absence of these conditions, we go further by investigating that if State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decides to adopt IT, does there exist a stable and significant relationship between policy rate (monetary tool) and inflation measure (objective)? This bivariate relationship is important to be analyzed given the important role of interest rate in mitigating the deviations between actual and target inflation while working within the IT framework. To illustrate this relationship, we use Granger Causality test and our estimates fail to find any significant link between interest rate and inflation. On the basis of overall findings, this study suggests that Pakistan, due to the absence of most fundamental requirements of IT, is perhaps not ready for Inflation Targeting yet.

Suggested Citation

  • Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2008. "What Does Pakistan Have to Join Inflation Targeters Club, A Royal Flush or A Seven-Deuce Offsuit?," MPRA Paper 19575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19575
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19575/1/MPRA_paper_19575.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Guy Debelle, 1998. "Inflation Targeting in Practice," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ23.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting Lite' in Small Open Economies: The Case of Mauritius," IMF Working Papers 2005/172, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zafar Hayat & Muhammad Nadim Hanif, 2020. "Assessing the Role of Money versus Interest Rate in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 101-114.
    2. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 1-11, October.
    3. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "The Effects of Inflation Targeting on Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: A Case Study of South Africa," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(6), pages 1-4.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Targeting; Pakistan; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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