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Análisis macroeconómico e institucional del riesgo de crédito en el sector agrícola de los países en desarrollo
[Credit risk in the agricultural sector: an agricultural economics analysis using panel data]

Author

Listed:
  • Cortes Quiñonez, Juan Camilo
  • Cabezas, Stefania Cielo

Abstract

Access to credit is a key driver of agricultural sector development in emerging economies; however, this process entails significant risks for financial institutions. This study examines credit risk in the agricultural sector from a macroeconomic and institutional perspective. A fixed-effects panel data model is employed for the period 2010–2022, using data from six selected countries: Colombia, Mexico, India, the Philippines, South Africa, and Romania. The dependent variable is the ratio of non-performing loans, used as a proxy for credit risk, while the independent variables include macroeconomic indicators, interest rates, institutional quality, and sector-specific agricultural variables. The results indicate that the real interest rate and agriculture's value added as a percentage of GDP are significant positive determinants of credit risk. Additionally, the analysis finds that higher government effectiveness is associated with an increase in the share of non-performing loans, potentially reflecting improved financial reporting and supervision practices. The study highlights the complex interplay between institutional environment, macroeconomic dynamics, and credit risk in the agricultural sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortes Quiñonez, Juan Camilo & Cabezas, Stefania Cielo, 2025. "Análisis macroeconómico e institucional del riesgo de crédito en el sector agrícola de los países en desarrollo [Credit risk in the agricultural sector: an agricultural economics analysis using panel data]," MPRA Paper 128675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:128675
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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