Dualisme des régimes de change et contrainte de coordination des politiques économiques en République Démocratique du Congo[Dualism of exchange rate regimes and the constraint of economic policy coordination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo]

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate regime dualism on the coordination of economic policies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Although the country officially adopted a floating exchange rate regime in 2001, the economy remains highly dollarized and characterized by persistent segmentation between the official and parallel foreign exchange markets. This institutional mismatch raises concerns about the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy coordination. Using annual data for the period 1995–2024, the study applies a linear econometric model in which inflation serves as a synthetic indicator of macroeconomic coordination. The model includes the degree of dollarization, money supply growth, the fiscal deficit, and an indicator capturing foreign exchange market dualism. The results indicate that inflation dynamics in the DRC are mainly driven by monetary expansion and changes in the degree of dollarization. Exchange rate market dualism influences inflation indirectly by weakening monetary transmission mechanisms. Furthermore, the shift to a floating exchange rate regime in 2001 does not appear to have generated a significant structural break in inflation behavior. These findings suggest that the primary constraint on macroeconomic coordination in the DRC does not stem from the formal exchange rate regime choice itself, but rather from the coexistence of a de jure floating regime and a de facto highly dollarized monetary system. The paper underscores the importance of coherent and credible policy strategies aimed at strengthening monetary credibility and improving coordination among monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies.