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Dualisme des régimes de change et contrainte de coordination des politiques économiques en République Démocratique du Congo
[Dualism of exchange rate regimes and the constraint of economic policy coordination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo]

Author

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  • Cilengi Kandolo, Augustin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate regime dualism on the coordination of economic policies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Although the country officially adopted a floating exchange rate regime in 2001, the economy remains highly dollarized and characterized by persistent segmentation between the official and parallel foreign exchange markets. This institutional mismatch raises concerns about the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy coordination. Using annual data for the period 1995–2024, the study applies a linear econometric model in which inflation serves as a synthetic indicator of macroeconomic coordination. The model includes the degree of dollarization, money supply growth, the fiscal deficit, and an indicator capturing foreign exchange market dualism. The results indicate that inflation dynamics in the DRC are mainly driven by monetary expansion and changes in the degree of dollarization. Exchange rate market dualism influences inflation indirectly by weakening monetary transmission mechanisms. Furthermore, the shift to a floating exchange rate regime in 2001 does not appear to have generated a significant structural break in inflation behavior. These findings suggest that the primary constraint on macroeconomic coordination in the DRC does not stem from the formal exchange rate regime choice itself, but rather from the coexistence of a de jure floating regime and a de facto highly dollarized monetary system. The paper underscores the importance of coherent and credible policy strategies aimed at strengthening monetary credibility and improving coordination among monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Cilengi Kandolo, Augustin, 2026. "Dualisme des régimes de change et contrainte de coordination des politiques économiques en République Démocratique du Congo [Dualism of exchange rate regimes and the constraint of economic policy coordination in the Democratic Republic of the Cong," MPRA Paper 127804, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jan 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127804
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    2. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 20338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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