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The Asian Currency Crisis - A Fait Accompli?

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  • Bacha, Obiyathulla I.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the East Asian Currency Crisis to examine what factors led to the crisis and the differential impact across countries. Empirical data of 7 Asian countries over the period 1990 – 1996 is examined. The sample of seven countries is divided into two categories; crisis countries and affected countries. Comparison of several economic indicators is made between these two categories to determine what factors led to the severe consequences in the crisis countries as opposed to affected countries, all of which were subject to contagion. The crisis countries were found to have had aggressive growth policies that were fuelled by reflationary strategies; particularly rapid monetary growth and capital inflows. With higher relative inflation and repressed interest rates, exchange rate equilibrium as dictated by purchasing power and interest rate parities were out of line given pegged exchange rates. The currencies had become overvalued. The result being current account deficits that were financed by capital inflows, increasingly in the form of short term foreign currency denominated loans. The combined impact of all of this had been to increase the crisis countries’ vulnerability to a speculative attack and a resulting self-fulfilling crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bacha, Obiyathulla I., 1997. "The Asian Currency Crisis - A Fait Accompli?," MPRA Paper 12756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12756
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12756/1/MPRA_paper_12756.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    3. Berthelemy, J C & Varoudakis, A, 1995. "Thresholds in Financial Development and Economic Growth," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(0), pages 70-84, Suppl..
    4. Subir Lall, 1997. "Speculative Attacks, Forward Market Intervention and the Classic Bear Squeeze," IMF Working Papers 97/164, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May.
    6. McKinnon, Ronald I. & Pill, Huw, 1998. "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1267-1282, July.
    7. Otker, Inci & Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla, 1997. "Speculative attacks and macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from some European currencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 847-860, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2006. "Stock prices and bank loan dynamics in a developing country: The case of Malaysia," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 9, pages 71-89, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian Currency Crisis; differential impact on countries;

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

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