تحلیل اثر اقتصاد نفت پایه، انتظارات و چرخه ادواری عرضه برقیمت مسکن کلان شهرهای منتخب ایران (1379-1394)[The Impact of Oil-based Economy, Expectations and Supply Cycles on Metropolitan Housing Prices in Iran (2000-2015)]

Housing is one of the basic needs of household and not-substitutable goods, in other hand some agents invest in housing for capital gain. The housing sector is also one of the most important sectors of the economy in all countries. The connectivity of housing market with other sectors of the economy has led to the fact that the housing market has been affected by oil-oriented macroeconomic change and, conversely the housing market has a significant impact on other sectors of the economy, due to its large influence on firm and households' decisions. The research models and analyzes the effect of key factors of supply and demand on housing prices in the metropolitan areas of Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad and Qom during the years of 2000-2015, using panel data method. In particular, it emphasizes the characteristics of an oil economy, the role of urban land limitation, expectations and the housing supply cycle. The results show a negative relationship between housing prices with land scarcity index and supply cycle. Also, the results indicate a positive and significant relationship between prices with expectations and liquidity growth. Ultimately, it is suggested and recommended three solutions for stabilization of the housing market: (i) planning a flexible urban land policy, (ii) the introduction of an anti-cyclical policy using tax and Bank loans (iii) commitment to a low growth rate for M2.