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Inflation without politics: how French prices outsmarted bullets, 1938-1949

Author

Listed:
  • Baubeau, Patrice
  • Teixeira, Mateo

Abstract

This article addresses the growing gap in the literature between qualitative data on prices and money in France around World War II, and the available CPI. It gathers archival price data to calculate a new CPI for 1938-1949, incorporating both official and black-market prices. The study demonstrates the adequacy of available sources and the robustness of the new CPI, both in its construction and when compared to contemporary analyses. Three key findings are that France did not experience exponential price acceleration; that dictatorship (1940-1944) was no more effective at price control than democracy (1945-1949); and that the 1944-1945 wage increases had a minor impact on inflation, questioning the price-wage loop explanation of France’s post-war inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Baubeau, Patrice & Teixeira, Mateo, 2024. "Inflation without politics: how French prices outsmarted bullets, 1938-1949," MPRA Paper 121621, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:121621
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/121621/1/MPRA_paper_121621.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Occhino, Filippo & Oosterlinck, Kim & White, Eugene N., 2008. "How Much Can a Victor Force the Vanquished to Pay? France under the Nazi Boot," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 1-45, March.
    2. Masato Shizume, 2018. "Black Market Prices during World War II in Japan: An Estimate Using the Hedonic Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Eric Monnet, 2018. "Controlling Credit. Central Banking and the Planned Economy in Postwar France, 1948–1973," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02921743, HAL.
    4. Paul Sanders, 2008. "Economic draining -- German black market operations in France, 1940--1944," Global Crime, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1-2), pages 136-168, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • N01 - Economic History - - General - - - Development of the Discipline: Historiographical; Sources and Methods
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • P4 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems
    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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