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Interpolation of Japan's Household Consumption during World War II

Author

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  • Ryoji Koike

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: ryouji.koike@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

This paper reconstructs a comparable series of Japan's household consumption in the 1940s, using historical records about household outlays and black-market transactions, and interpolating missing values in the existing statistics. Specifically, nominal outlays of urban and farm households are estimated, and then converted into real outlays by effective price indexes containing black-market transactions. Household outlay per capita is then computed by taking the average of urban and farm household outlays using population shares as weights. Real outlay in 1945 is estimated at a little less than 50 percent compared to that in 1940, although statistics are missing for 1945. Even considering alternative estimates using other records, real outlay in 1945 is a little more than 50 percent compared to that in 1940. Thus, it is concluded that Japan's household consumption in 1945 declined to the level in 1875-1880.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryoji Koike, 2019. "Interpolation of Japan's Household Consumption during World War II," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:19-e-07
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    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/19-E-07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiyohito Utsunomiya, 2008. "Economic Fluctuations in Japan during the Interwar Period: Re- Estimation of the LTES Personal Consumption Expenditures," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 26, pages 131-158, December.
    2. Huff, Gregg & Majima, Shinobu (ed.), 2018. "World War II Singapore," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9789814722629.
    3. Masato Shizume, 2018. "Black Market Prices during World War II in Japan: An Estimate Using the Hedonic Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Makoto Saito, 2021. "Central Banknotes and Black Markets: The Case of the Japanese Economy During and Immediately After World War II," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Strong Money Demand in Financing War and Peace, pages 25-56, Springer.
    5. Higgs, Robert, 1992. "Wartime Prosperity? A Reassessment of the U.S. Economy in the 1940s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 41-60, March.
    6. Kiyohito Utsunomiya, 2008. "Economic Fluctuations in Japan during the Interwar Period -- Re- estimations of the LTES Personal," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric B. Schneider & Kota Ogasawara & Tim J. Cole, 2021. "Health Shocks, Recovery, and the First Thousand Days: The Effect of the Second World War on Height Growth in Japanese Children," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 1075-1105, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • N35 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Y10 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Data: Tables and Charts - - - Data: Tables and Charts
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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