IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ime/imedps/08-e-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Fluctuations in Japan during the Interwar Period -- Re- estimations of the LTES Personal

Author

Listed:
  • Kiyohito Utsunomiya

    (Senior Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: kiyohito.utsunomiya@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

To date, most research on Interwar Period economic fluctuations in Japan has been based on Estimates of Long-term Economic Statistics of Japan (LTES), edited by Kazushi Ohkawa et al. Regardless, the LTES data are just one set of estimations. They require scrutiny, especially for the measurement of personal consumption, which has a high weight in GNE. This paper re-estimates the LTES personal consumption expenditures by adjusting the estimation methods for certain expense categories and deducting imputations (which may have a large measurement error), and then calculates real GDP (adjusted real GDP) focusing on the market economy. The re-estimation presents no major changes from the LTES in the shape of the economic fluctuations of the 1920s, when the Japanese economy continuously posted gunbalanced growth. h From the Showa Depression forward, however, while the LTES shows continued positive real GDP growth, the re-estimation indicates negative growth in adjusted real GDP in 1931. These findings remain robust after considering the bias from the deflator formula. Given the characteristics of national accounts and the measurement error, these re-estimation results suggest that the severity of the Showa Depression may have been underestimated in the prior research.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyohito Utsunomiya, 2008. "Economic Fluctuations in Japan during the Interwar Period -- Re- estimations of the LTES Personal," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:08-e-06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/08-E-06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Inaoka, Hajime & Takayasu, Hideki & Shimizu, Tokiko & Ninomiya, Takuto & Taniguchi, Ken, 2004. "Self-similarity of banking network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 339(3), pages 621-634.
    2. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    3. Rama Cont & Amal Moussa & Edson B Santos, 2013. "Network structure and systemic risk in banking systems," Post-Print hal-00912018, HAL.
    4. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Tomoki Taishi, 2016. "Quantitative Easing and Liquidity in the Japanese Government Bond Market," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Beltran, Daniel O. & Bolotnyy, Valentin & Klee, Elizabeth C., 2015. "Un-Networking: The Evolution of Networks in the Federal Funds Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    7. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    8. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    9. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
    10. Rick Bookstaber & Mark Paddrik & Brian Tivnan, 2014. "An Agent-based Model for Financial Vulnerability," Working Papers 14-05, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, revised Sep 2014.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japanese Economy; Interwar Period; Showa Depression; Great Depression; Personal Consumption; National Accounts; Deflator; Imputation;

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:08-e-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.