CETA, an ex post analysis

We perform an ex-post analysis of the effects of the CETA trade agreement in the agricultural, farming and food transformation sectors. We find strong evidence in support of a positive trade effect of the treaty. We also perform a series of analyses aimed at ascertaining the effects of the treaty on various subsectors. We find overall net-positive trade effects although we can clearly identify “winners” and “losers” of the treaty. Our analyses seem to indicate a positive trade creation effect not limited to the parties. We find evidence that the increase in trade flow between the members had a net positive effect in the form of an increase in overall international trade. We draw some preliminary policy conclusions on the effects of the treaty.