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A survey on macroeconomic data and trends in the Eurozone and a control dashboard model based on the KAM and Nekhoroshev theorems and the Hénon attractor

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  • Desogus, Marco
  • Casu, Elisa

Abstract

Starting from the examination of the main macroeconomic parameters that have characterized the structure of the Eurozone in the last decade – and their systemization – our aim was to apply a model suitable for describing its dynamics. In particular, the Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser theorem was adapted to the question, up to low level perturbations caused by negative economic conditions, the first symptoms of financial or exogenous crises, and other turbulence affecting the economy. We then applied Nekhoroshev's theorem to represent the phenomena characterized by the occurrence of stronger resonance as well as the reactions of the system to the control and recovery measures implemented by the ECB Governing Council. The goal of the paper is to propose the adoption of a systemic stability planning and control dashboard – also suitable for the support and stimulation of growth cycles – with attention to optimal performance, which can be identified in compliance with (or restoration of) the macroeconomic trajectories determined in the model by the Hénon Attractor. The proposed scheme may find useful application – both for evaluation and operational purposes – in the current period, characterized by the complex and compromised scenario brought about by the SARS-COVID2 pandemic emergency, which has obviously imposed structured measures to support the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Desogus, Marco & Casu, Elisa, 2021. "A survey on macroeconomic data and trends in the Eurozone and a control dashboard model based on the KAM and Nekhoroshev theorems and the Hénon attractor," MPRA Paper 114366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114366
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Desogus, Marco & Casu, Elisa, 2020. "On the Monetary Causes of Inequality: A Review of the Literature and an Alternate Way Forward," MPRA Paper 114362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Oliver Picek, 2020. "Spillover Effects From Next Generation EU," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(5), pages 325-331, September.
    3. Lenza, Michele & Slacalek, Jiri, 2018. "How does monetary policy affect income and wealth inequality? Evidence from quantitative easing in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2190, European Central Bank.
    4. Crescenzi, Riccardo & Giua, Mara & Sonzogno, Giulia Valeria, 2021. "Mind the Covid-19 crisis: An evidence-based implementation of Next Generation EU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 278-297.
    5. Ben Bouheni, Faten & Hasnaoui, Amir, 2017. "Cyclical behavior of the financial stability of eurozone commercial banks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 392-408.
    6. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2020. "Corrigendum to: Is the Eurozone disintegrating? Macroeconomic divergence, structural polarisation, trade and fragility," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(4), pages 979-979.
    7. Ralph S. J. Koijen & François Koulischer & Benoît Nguyen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Euro-Area Quantitative Easing and Portfolio Rebalancing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 621-627, May.
    8. Philipp Genschel & Markus Jachtenfuchs, 2018. "From Market Integration to Core State Powers: The Eurozone Crisis, the Refugee Crisis and Integration Theory," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 178-196, January.
    9. Philippe Andrade & Christophe Cahn & Henri Fraisse & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, 2019. "Can the Provision of Long-Term Liquidity Help to Avoid a Credit Crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem’s LTRO," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1070-1106.
    10. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2020. "Is the Eurozone disintegrating? Macroeconomic divergence, structural polarisation, trade and fragility," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 647-669.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic Cycles; Monetary Policy Analysis; Optimizing Dynamic Models; Eurozone; Hamiltonian; Quasi-periodic Solution; Covid19 Crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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