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Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data


  • Yucel, Eray M.


The effects of a specific religious tradition on the food prices establish the central theme of this paper. In specific, I investigate whether the month Ramadan has any effect on food prices. I perform the analysis under two alternative calendar conventions, namely the Gregorian and Hijri calendars. Under both conventions, the paper reveals the effects of Ramadan, yet these effects are better captured when the latter is used. This highlights the importance of the calendar choice on econometric analysis, on the basis of a simple-yet-genuine socio-economic exercise. Possible benefits from this exercise in pedagogical terms as well as in inflation forecasting are also addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Yucel, Eray M., 2005. "Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data," MPRA Paper 1141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1141

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882.
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Akmal & Muhammad Usman Abbasi, 2011. "Ramadan Effect on Price Movements: Evidence from Pakistan," Working Papers id:3937, eSocialSciences.
    2. Kazi Abrar, Hossain & Syed Abul, Basher & A.K. Enamul, Haque, 2017. "Quantifying the impact of Ramadan on global raw sugar prices," MPRA Paper 75941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Muhammad Akmal & Muhammad Usman Abbasi, 2010. "Ramadan Effect on Price Movements: Evidence from Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 32, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    4. Riaz Riazuddin, 2012. "Construction and Seasonal Patterns of Islamic Hijri Calendar Monthly Time Series: An Application to Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Pakistan," Working Papers id:4927, eSocialSciences.
    5. Moayedi, Vafa, 2012. "Detecting Islamic Calendar Effects on U.S. Meat Consumption: Is the Muslim Population Larger than Widely Assumed?," MPRA Paper 41554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Enflasyonda Ramazan Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1414, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item


    Seasonality; Ramadan; Food prices; Calendar effects;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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