IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/112459.html

Does public infrastructure lead or lag GDP? evidence from Thailand based on NARDL

Author

Listed:
  • Haskanbancha, Nazmi
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

It is usually recognized that public infrastructure is an important ingredient for economic growth.. What is not clear, however, is the leader-follower relationship between them. This paper is focused on whether the infrastructure leads GDP or the other way around. Thailand is used as a case study. The methods used are the ARDL and nonlinear ARDL. The nonlinear ARDL analysis indicates that the cointegrating relationship between the two variables is nonlinear and that the relationship is asymmetric in both the short and long run. Furthermore, the findings based on variance decomposition analysis tend to indicate that infrastructure drives GDP and not the other way around. These findings appear to be intuitive and contain strong policy implications for the decision makers in an emerging economy like Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Haskanbancha, Nazmi & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Does public infrastructure lead or lag GDP? evidence from Thailand based on NARDL," MPRA Paper 112459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:112459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/112459/1/MPRA_paper_112459.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:wbk:wbpubs:14456 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. K. N. Murty & A. Soumya, 2006. "Effects of public investment in infrastructure on growth and poverty in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2006-006, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    5. Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Dash, 2012. "Economic growth in South Asia: Role of infrastructure," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 217-252, January.
    6. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    7. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    8. David Alan Aschauer, 1989. "Back of the G-7 pack: public investment and productivity growth in the Group of Seven," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 89-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    11. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Sahoo, Pravakar & Dash, Ranjan Kumar & Nataraj, Geethanjali, 2010. "Infrastructure development and economic growth in China," IDE Discussion Papers 261, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    14. Lars-Hendrik Roller & Leonard Waverman, 2001. "Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 909-923, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bashir Olayinka Kolawole, 2016. "Government Spending and Inclusive-Growth Relationship in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 19(2), pages 33-56, November.
    2. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Garikai Makuyana & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Public and private investment and economic growth in Zimbabwe: An empirical test," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(1), pages 60-76, March.
    4. Garikai Makuyana & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Public and private investment and economic growth in Malawi: an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 673-689, January.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    6. Syed Ammad & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 2014. "Dynamic Effects of Energy Sector Public Investment on Sectoral Economic Growth: Experience from Pakistan Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 403-421.
    7. Ibrahim, Ngouhouo & Orfe, Chouafi Nguekam & Gilbert, Noula Armand & Honore, Tekam Oumbe, 2019. "Effects of Socio-Economic Conditions on the Relationship between Public and Private investments in the CEMAC Zone," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, March.
    8. Sahoo, Pravakar & Dash, Ranjan Kumar & Nataraj, Geethanjali, 2010. "Infrastructure development and economic growth in China," IDE Discussion Papers 261, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    9. Makuyana, Garikai & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2017. "Public and private investment and economic growth in South Africa:An empirical investigation," Working Papers 22005, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    10. Marie-Ange VEGANZONES-VAROUDAKIS, 2000. "Infrastructures, investissement et croissance : un bilan de dix années de recherches," Working Papers 200007, CERDI.
    11. Ibrar Hussain & Zahoor Khan & Muhmmad Rafiq, 2017. "Compositional Changes in Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, Victoria, 2002. "Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policies on Long-Run Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-028/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Apr 2003.
    13. Nijkamp, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 2004. "Meta-analysis of the effect of fiscal policies on long-run growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-124, March.
    14. repec:cuf:journl:y:2014:v:15:i:2:calderon:serven is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    16. Maparu, Tuhin Subhra & Mazumder, Tarak Nath, 2017. "Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 319-336.
    17. David Canning & Peter Pedroni, 2008. "Infrastructure, Long‐Run Economic Growth And Causality Tests For Cointegrated Panels," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 504-527, September.
    18. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 360-390.
    19. Luqman, Muhammad & Ahmad, Najid & Bakhsh, Khuda, 2019. "Nuclear energy, renewable energy and economic growth in Pakistan: Evidence from non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1299-1309.
    20. Poot, Jacques, 1999. "A meta-analytic study of the role of government in long-run economic growth," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa171, European Regional Science Association.
    21. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:112459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.