IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/111034.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economics of Technological Leapfrogging

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Keun

Abstract

One of the key issues of latecomer economic development is whether they should follow the path of forerunners or whether they should create a new or follow a different path of development. An emerging view (Lee and Lim, 2001; Lee, 2013) is that latecomers do not simply follow advanced countries’ path of technological development but occasionally skip certain stages or create their own path which differs from that of forerunners. This observation is consistent with the idea of leapfrogging (Perez and Soete, 1988), according to which some latecomers may be able to leapfrog older vintages of technology, bypass heavy investments in previous technological systems or stages, and make pre-emptive investments in emerging technologies to catch up with advanced countries in new markets. The answer to the question whether the 4IR represents a new window of opportunity for leapfrogging or whether it constitutes a source of further risks for latecomers is that this depends entirely on the country’s response and readiness, i.e. its industrial policy, digital literacy, the skill and education level compared to wage rates, as well as domestic market size and position in the GVC. We identify three groups of countries. The first group of economies have a manufacturing basis and seems to be the group with the most promising potential for proper leapfrogging from Industry 2.0 (mass production) to Industry 4.0 (smart factories) and bypass the intermediate stage of Industry 3.0 (automation). The second group of economies have an FDI-based manufacturing sector, where leapfrogging hinges on MNCs which have several options at their disposal, such as relocating to other economies in search of cheaper wages or reshoring back to home countries. The key factor for success in this context are the local institutions – if they foster the training and upskilling of the local workforce, they can persuade MNCs to remain in the country. The last group includes latecomer economies that have the potential of making promising 4IR-related strides in the service sector or in servicitized manufacturing industries. It is quite plausible that success in services may have a boosting effect on local manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Keun, 2019. "Economics of Technological Leapfrogging," MPRA Paper 111034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111034/8/MPRA_paper_111034.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:wbk:wbpubs:2536 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Keun Lee & Marina Szapiro & Zhuqing Mao, 2018. "From Global Value Chains (GVC) to Innovation Systems for Local Value Chains and Knowledge Creation," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(3), pages 424-441, July.
    3. Lee,Keun, 2019. "The Art of Economic Catch-Up," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108460705, September.
    4. Michael Hobday, 1995. "Innovation In East Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 226.
    5. Lee, Keun & Malerba, Franco, 2017. "Catch-up cycles and changes in industrial leadership:Windows of opportunity and responses of firms and countries in the evolution of sectoral systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 338-351.
    6. Keun Lee & Marina Szapiro & Zhuqing Mao, 2018. "Correction to: From Global Value Chains (GVC) to Innovation Systems for Local Value Chains and Knowledge Creation," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(3), pages 575-575, July.
    7. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 2 : Robust Recovery, Rising Risks," World Bank Publications - Reports 2536, The World Bank Group.
    8. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    9. Mu, Qing & Lee, Keun, 2005. "Knowledge diffusion, market segmentation and technological catch-up: The case of the telecommunication industry in China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 759-783, August.
    10. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Keun Lee & Calestous Juma & John Mathews, 2014. "Innovation Capabilities for Sustainable Development in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-062, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6632.
    13. Keun Lee & Sanika Sulochani Ramanayake, 2018. "Adding-Up Problem and Wage–Productivity Gap in Exports of Developing Countries: A Source of the Middle-Income Trap," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(5), pages 769-788, December.
    14. Franco Malerba, 2005. "Sectoral systems of innovation: a framework for linking innovation to the knowledge base, structure and dynamics of sectors," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1-2), pages 63-82.
    15. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    16. Shin, Jang-Sup, 2017. "Dynamic catch-up strategy, capability expansion and changing windows of opportunity in the memory industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 404-416.
    17. Giachetti, Claudio & Marchi, Gianluca, 2017. "Successive changes in leadership in the worldwide mobile phone industry: The role of windows of opportunity and firms’ competitive action," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 352-364.
    18. Lee, Keun & Ki, Jee-hoon, 2017. "Rise of latecomers and catch-up cycles in the world steel industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 365-375.
    19. Joo, SH & Oh, C & Lee, Keun, 2016. "Catch-up Strategy of an Emerging Firm in an Emerging Country: Analyzing the Case of Huawei vs. Ericsson with Patent Data," MPRA Paper 109958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ivus, Olena, 2010. "Do stronger patent rights raise high-tech exports to the developing world?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 38-47, May.
    21. Lee, Keun & Lim, Chaisung, 2001. "Technological regimes, catching-up and leapfrogging: findings from the Korean industries," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 459-483, March.
    22. Kim, Linsu, 1980. "Stages of development of industrial technology in a developing country: A model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 254-277, July.
    23. Wonkyu Shin & Keun Lee & Walter G. Park, 2016. "When an Importer's Protection of IPR Interacts with an Exporter's Level of Technology: Comparing the Impacts on the Exports of the North and South," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 772-802, June.
    24. Tsuyoshi Nakamura & Hiroshi Ohashi, 2012. "Effects of re-invention on industry growth and productivity: evidence from steel refining technology in Japan, 1957--1968," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 411-426, June.
    25. Justin Yifu Lin, 2012. "New Structural Economics : A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2232.
    26. Lee, Keun & Juma, Calestous & Mathews, John, 2014. "Innovation capabilities for sustainable development in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 062, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    27. Giovanni Dosi & Christopher Freeman & Richard Nelson & Gerarld Silverberg & Luc Soete (ed.), 1988. "Technical Change and Economic Theory," LEM Book Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy, number dosietal-1988, November.
    28. Lee, Keun & Lim, Chaisung & Song, W, 2005. "Emerging Digital Technology as a Window of Opportunity and Technological Leapfrogging: Catch-up in Digital TV by the Korean Firms," MPRA Paper 109777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Keun Lee & Chan-Yuan Wong & Patarapong Intarakumnerd & Chaiyatorn Limapornvanich, 2020. "Is the Fourth Industrial Revolution a window of opportunity for upgrading or reinforcing the middle-income trap? Asian model of development in Southeast Asia," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 408-425, October.
    30. Sanjaya Lall, 2000. "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-98," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 337-369.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. San Choi & Jongtaik Lee & Hyun-Woo Park, 2020. "A Comparative Study of Sustainable Transition from Catch-up to Post Catch-up of South Korea and China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Peerally, Jahan Ara & Santiago, Fernando & De Fuentes, Claudia & Moghavvemi, Sedigheh, 2022. "Towards a firm-level technological capability framework to endorse and actualize the Fourth Industrial Revolution in developing countries," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuzhe Miao & Jaeyong Song & Keun Lee & Chuyue Jin, 2018. "Technological catch-up by east Asian firms: Trends, issues, and future research agenda," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 639-669, September.
    2. Joo, SH & Oh, C & Lee, Keun, 2016. "Catch-up Strategy of an Emerging Firm in an Emerging Country: Analyzing the Case of Huawei vs. Ericsson with Patent Data," MPRA Paper 109958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lee, Keun & Malerba, Franco, 2017. "Catch-up cycles and changes in industrial leadership:Windows of opportunity and responses of firms and countries in the evolution of sectoral systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 338-351.
    4. Minaee, Mohammadreza & Elahi, Shaban & Majidpour, Mehdi & Manteghi, Manoochehr, 2021. "Lessons learned from an unsuccessful “catching-up” in the automobile industry of Iran," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Keun Lee, 2013. "Capability Failure and Industrial Policy to Move beyond the Middle-Income Trap: From Trade-based to Technology-based Specialization," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Justin Yifu Lin (ed.), The Industrial Policy Revolution I, chapter 4, pages 244-272, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Paulo Henrique Assis Feitosa, 2020. "Creating your own path to move beyond the middle-income trap: lessons from Korea [Criando seu próprio caminho para ir além da armadilha de renda média: lições da Coréia]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 30(spe), pages 1145-1167, December.
    7. Lei Guo & Marina Yue Zhang & Mark Dodgson & David Gann & Hong Cai, 2019. "Seizing windows of opportunity by using technology-building and market-seeking strategies in tandem: Huawei’s sustained catch-up in the global market," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 849-879, September.
    8. Lu Xu & Jie Xiong & Jie Yan & Richard Soparnot & Zhe Yuan, 2023. "Technological Uncertainty and Catch-Up Patterns: Insights of Four Chinese Manufacturing Sectors," Post-Print hal-04011634, HAL.
    9. Landini, Fabio & Lee, Keun & Malerba, Franco, 2017. "A history-friendly model of the successive changes in industrial leadership and the catch-up by latecomers," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 431-446.
    10. Guo, Yanting & Zheng, Gang, 2019. "How do firms upgrade capabilities for systemic catch-up in the open innovation context? A multiple-case study of three leading home appliance companies in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 36-48.
    11. Kwak, Kiho & Kim, Namil, 2022. "Industrial Leadership Changes without Technological Discontinuity: Modularization, Institution-Led Market Discontinuity, and Market Development Strategy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    12. Li, Daitian & Capone, Gianluca & Malerba, Franco, 2019. "The long march to catch-up: A history-friendly model of China’s mobile communications industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 649-664.
    13. Soltanzadeh, Javad & Rahmani, Soma & Majidpour, Mehdi, 2024. "Technological catch-up in the Iranian steel industry: Integrating regime-based and complex product systems approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Keun Lee & Di Qu & Zhuqing Mao, 2021. "Global Value Chains, Industrial Policy, and Industrial Upgrading: Automotive Sectors in Malaysia, Thailand, and China in Comparison with Korea," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(2), pages 275-303, April.
    15. Hidalgo, César A., 2023. "The policy implications of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(9).
    16. Yoruk, Esin & Radosevic, Slavo & Fischer, Bruno, 2023. "Technological profiles, upgrading and the dynamics of growth: Country-level patterns and trajectories across distinct stages of development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    17. Lim, Chaisung & Kim, Y & Lee, Keun, 2015. "Changes in Industrial Leadership and Catch-Up by Latecomers in Shipbuilding Industry," MPRA Paper 109957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Paulo N. Figueiredo & Janaina Piana, 2021. "Technological learning strategies and technology upgrading intensity in the mining industry: evidence from Brazil," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 629-659, June.
    19. Li, Daitian & Malerba, Franco, 2024. "Technological change and the evolution of the links across sectoral systems: The case of mobile communications," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    20. San Choi & Jongtaik Lee & Hyun-Woo Park, 2020. "A Comparative Study of Sustainable Transition from Catch-up to Post Catch-up of South Korea and China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-23, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    leapfrogging; window of opportunity; 4th industrial revolution; GVC; path-creating; catch up; technological development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111034. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.