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The Determinants of Credit Default on Portuguese Start-Up Firms: .An Econometric model


  • Vitor Gonçalves

    () (Phd Student of Finance, FEP.UP)

  • Francisco Vitorino Martins

    () (Professor FEP.UP)

  • Elísio Brandão

    () (Professor of Finance, FEP.UP)


In this paper we investigate the behaviour of credit default in start-up companies. Using a logit regression technique on a panel data of 1430 start-ups and considering a tracking period of three years, we tested the impact on the probability of occurrence of the first credit event in financing agreements due to variables grouped into three categories: financial capital, human capital and industry dynamics. We concluded from a financial point of view, that the support provided by partners in the financing of the company’s activity, the intensity of use of assets under management and reduced debt pay-back periods, were decisive in mitigating risk of default. In addition we found that the occurrence of a credit event will only be as limited as higher the quality of human capital held by the promoter of the project in terms of educational background and management experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Vitor Gonçalves & Francisco Vitorino Martins & Elísio Brandão, 2014. "The Determinants of Credit Default on Portuguese Start-Up Firms: .An Econometric model," FEP Working Papers 534, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  • Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:534

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2007. "Entrepreneurship and the process of firms’ entry, survival and growth," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 455-488, June.
    2. Edward Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2005. "Effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on Bank Capital Requirements for SMEs," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 15-42, October.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    4. Edward I. Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2007. "Modelling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. Market," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 43(3), pages 332-357.
    5. Godbillon-Camus, Brigitte & Godlewski, Christophe, 2005. "Credit risk management in banks: Hard information, soft Information and manipulation," MPRA Paper 1873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Audretsch, David B. & Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 1999. "Start-up size and industrial dynamics: some evidence from Italian manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(7), pages 965-983, October.
    7. Hakenes, Hendrik, 2004. "Banks as delegated risk managers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2399-2426, October.
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    More about this item


    Credit Default; Start-Up; Financial Capital; Human Capital; Industry Dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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