Exchange Rate Volatility and Choice of Anchor Currency - Prospects for a Melanesian Currency Union
This paper investigates an appropriate choice of anchor currency for a proposed Melanesian currency union under various hypothetical currency union arrangements. Drawing from the optimal currency area (OCA) theory and related extensions, the analysis focuses on the effects of a currency union on exchange rate volatility following similar approach by Scrimgeour (2002). Counterfactual exchange rate series are constructed for alternative scenarios for Melanesia with the following major trading partners: Australia, New Zealand, USA and Japan. The main findings showed that both short-term and cyclical exchange rate volatility are generally lower in a currency union with either Australia or New Zealand. However, the results vary under varying weights and currency baskets. Choosing a single common anchor currency based solely on exchange rate volatility may not be conclusive. Hence, further research is required, for example, in considering the effects of a currency union on volatility in output, inflation or interest rates.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2011|
|Date of revision:||Oct 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +64 3 479 8725
Fax: 64 3 479 8171
Web page: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher Meissner & Nienke Oomes, 2006.
"Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice,"
WEF Working Papers
0009, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
- Meissner, Christopher M. & Oomes, Nienke, 2009. "Why do countries peg the way they peg? The determinants of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 522-547, April.
- Meissner, C.M. & Oomes, N., 2006. "Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0643, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Nienke Oomes & Christopher M. Meissner, 2008. "Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice," IMF Working Papers 08/132, International Monetary Fund.
- Dean Scrimgeour, 2001. "Exchange rate volatility and Currency Union: Some theory and New Zealand evidence," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Kawai, Masahiro & Takagi, Shinji, 2000. "Proposed strategy for a regional exchange rate arrangement in post-crisis East Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2503, The World Bank.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Tom Doan, . "BKFILTER: RATS procedure to implement band pass filter using Baxter-King method," Statistical Software Components RTS00026, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998.
"Exchange rate volatility and intervention: implications of the theory of optimum currency areas,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-209, August.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Masahiro Kawai, 2008. "Toward A Regional Exchange Rate Regime In East Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103, 02.
- Chrysost BANGAKE, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Optimum Currency Area Index : Evidence from Africa," Working Papers 603, Orleans Economic Laboratorys, University of Orleans.
- George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
- Scrimgeour, Dean, 2002. "Exchange rate volatility and currency union: New Zealand evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 739-749, November.
- McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth, 2007.
"Volatility of Exchange Rates in Selected New EU Members: Evidence from Daily Data,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2107, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008. "Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janet Bryant)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.