After the Stall: Botswana’s Resumed Fertility Decline

After almost a decade of stagnation, fertility in Botswana resumed declining and is approaching replacement level. Though fertility stalls are assumed to be temporary, most of the literature has focused on explaining their causes. Less is known about how fertility changes after a stall, and register data in Botswana presents an unprecedented opportunity to study post-stall fertility with universal coverage. Using descriptive analyses and a finite mixture modelling approach, I examine the trends in childbirth between 2011 and 2023. Results show that the timing of childbirth is becoming more heterogeneous and stratified. Highly educated women are postponing first births while less educated women are accelerating them. Most children are born to unmarried mothers, and this share has increased. Fertility trends in Botswana are largely comparable to other late-transition contexts, and it may serve as an illustrative case for how other stalled countries will continue their transitions.