IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/45fwz.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Quarm, Richmond Sam
  • Busharads, Mohamed Osman Elamin
  • Institute of Research, Asian

Abstract

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Quarm, Richmond Sam & Busharads, Mohamed Osman Elamin & Institute of Research, Asian, 2020. "Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh," OSF Preprints 45fwz, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:45fwz
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/45fwz
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5fe15bdd66e535001aaa659a/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/45fwz?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. A. Taslim, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Monetary Programming in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 27(4), pages 81-100.
    2. Hildergart Ahumada & Lorena Garegnani, 1999. "Hodrik – Prescott filter in practice," Económica, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(4), pages 61-76.
    3. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2011. "Cyclical Behaviour of Macroeconomic Policies and Capital Flows: A Study of Asian Countries," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 34(2), pages 47-85.
    4. Razzak, W., 1997. "The Hodrick-Prescott technique: A smoother versus a filter: An application to New Zealand GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 163-168, December.
    5. Stern, David I., 2000. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
    6. Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 409-431, June.
    7. Maysami, Ramin Cooper & Koh, Tiong Sim, 2000. "A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 79-96, February.
    8. Mr. Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances: How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?," IMF Working Papers 2006/052, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Payne, James E., 2009. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 575-577, April.
    2. Santos, João & Domingos, Tiago & Sousa, Tânia & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2016. "Does a small cost share reflect a negligible role for energy in economic production? Testing for aggregate production functions including capital, labor, and useful exergy through a cointegration-base," MPRA Paper 70850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    4. Camarero, Mariam & Forte, Anabel & Garcia-Donato, Gonzalo & Mendoza, Yurena & Ordoñez, Javier, 2015. "Variable selection in the analysis of energy consumption–growth nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 207-216.
    5. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 351-358.
    6. Christian Hubert Ebeke, 2011. "Does the dual-citizenship recognition determine the level and the utilization of international remittances? Cross-Country Evidence," CERDI Working papers halshs-00559528, HAL.
    7. Omri, Anis, 2014. "An international literature survey on energy-economic growth nexus: Evidence from country-specific studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 951-959.
    8. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Energy consumption and income in G-7 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 739-750, October.
    9. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Should Moroccan Officials Depend on the Workers’ Remittances to Finance the Current Account Deficit?," MPRA Paper 52290, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 May 2013.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 229-236, January.
    11. Naushad Alam, 2017. "Analysis of the impact of select macroeconomic variables on the Indian Stock Market: A heteroscedastic cointegration approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(1), pages 119-127, March.
    12. Sunde, Tafirenyika & Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele, . "The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy on Real Variables in Namibia," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(01).
    13. Jensen, Janine & O'Toole, Ronnie & Matthews, Alan, 2003. "Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Agricultural Sector in Ireland: A CGE Modeling Approach," Conference papers 331125, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Francçois Lescaroux, 2011. "The Oil Price-Microeconomy Relationship is Alive and Well," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
    15. Kaplan, Muhittin & Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 31-41, June.
    16. Mohamed, Hazik & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Stock market comovement among the ASEAN-5 : a causality analysis," MPRA Paper 98781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Tomoya Suzuki, 2019. "Counterfactual Inflation Targeting in Nepal," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 97-117, December.
    18. Ton Kwaak & Werner Liebregts, 2012. "Time series for main variables on the performance of Dutch SMEs," Scales Research Reports H201204, EIM Business and Policy Research.
    19. Ewing, Bradley T. & Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2007. "Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1274-1281, February.
    20. Antoine Kamiantako Miyamueni & Henry Ngongo Muganza, 2018. "Chocs technologiques, chocs des prix et fluctuations du ch\^omage en R\'epublique D\'emocratique du Congo," Papers 1804.09532, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:45fwz. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.