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Transparency, Risk Management and International Financial Fragility

Author

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  • Mario Draghi
  • Francesco Giavazzi
  • Robert C. Merton

Abstract

Discussions of financial risk often fail to distinguish between risks that are consciously borne and those that are not. To understand the breeding conditions for financial crises the prime focus of concern should not be simply on large risk-taking per se, but on the unintended, or unanticipated accumulation of large risks by individuals, institutions or governments, often through the lack of knowledge or understanding of the risks by stakeholders and overseers of those entities. This paper analyses specific situations in which significant unanticipated and unintended financial risks are accumulated. It focuses, in particular, on the implicit guarantees that governments extend to banks and other financial institutions, which may result in the accumulation, often unconscious from the viewpoint of the government, of unanticipated risks in the balance sheet of the public sector. The paper also discusses how risk exposures can be measured, hedged and transferred through the use of derivatives, swap contracts, and other contractual agreements with specific reference to emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Draghi & Francesco Giavazzi & Robert C. Merton, 2003. "Transparency, Risk Management and International Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 9806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9806
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2003. "The Future of the IMF," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 31-38, May.
    2. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    4. Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 1992. "On the Management of Financial Guarantees," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 21(4), Winter.
    5. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Panageas, Stavros, 2008. "Hedging sudden stops and precautionary contractions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 28-57, February.
    6. Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Olivier D Jeanne, 2002. "“Original Sin,” Balance Sheet Crises, and the Roles of International Lending," IMF Working Papers 02/234, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
    8. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2006. "A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy," NBER Working Papers 12637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000. "Dollarization of Liabilities: Underinsurance and Domestic Financial Underdevelopment," NBER Working Papers 7792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Edward Kane, 2006. "Can the European Community Afford to Neglect the Need for More Accountable Safety-Net Management?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(2), pages 127-144, June.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dale F. Gray, 2013. "Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR," IMF Working Papers 13/218, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Wyn Morgan & Nicholas Snowden, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Gains from Financial Trade: A Reappraisal," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 342-362, February.
    5. Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2004. "The Design of Financial Systems: Towards a Synthesis of Function and Structure," NBER Working Papers 10620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2003. "Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads," Bank of England working papers 205, Bank of England.
    7. Mayes, David G., 2004. "An approach to bank insolvency in transition and emerging economies," Research Discussion Papers 4/2004, Bank of Finland.
    8. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Piotr Mielus, 2012. "Market Measures of Convergence in Central & Eastern Europe Emerging Markets in the Period of Turbulences on the Financial Market," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 31.
    10. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2006. "A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy," NBER Working Papers 12637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dimitri Vittas, 2003. "The use of"asset swaps"by institutional investors in South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3175, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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