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Over-the-Counter Derivatives and Systemic Risk to the Global Financial System

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  • Michael R. Darby

Abstract

Over the last decade dealing in derivative financial instruments (basically forwards, futures, options and combinations of these), particularly in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market has become a central activity for major wholesale banks and financial institutions. Measured in terms of notional principal amount, OTC derivatives outstanding are near, if not greater than, US$10 trillion, even after deduction of double-counting for intra-dealer transactions. Major new regulatory initiatives, including proposed new capital requirements, are under consideration as a means of reducing systemic risk. This paper examines the concept of systemic risk -- that failure of one firm will lead to the failure of a large number of other firms or indeed the collapse of the international financial system. Alternative proposed definitions are considered and integrated and the effects of OTC derivatives on these risks discussed. The key conclusion is that systemic risk has been reduced by the development of the OTC derivatives market due to shifting economic risks to those better able either to bear the risk or, in many cases, cancel it against offsetting risks. The implications of the Basle II capital proposals for systemic risk are analyzed and shown to increase this risk due to encouraging transactions which increase portfolio risks of the dealers and discouraging transactions which decrease their portfolio risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael R. Darby, 1994. "Over-the-Counter Derivatives and Systemic Risk to the Global Financial System," NBER Working Papers 4801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4801
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Litzenberger, Robert H, 1992. "Swaps: Plain and Fanciful," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 831-850, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    2. William Arrata & Alejandro Bernales & Virginie Coudert, 2013. "The effects of Derivatives on Underlying Financial Markets: Equity Options, Commodity Futures and Credit Default Swaps," Post-Print hal-01410748, HAL.
    3. Sheri M Markose, 2013. "Systemic risk analytics: A data-driven multi-agent financial network (MAFN) approach," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(3-4), pages 285-305, July.
    4. Luigi Infante & Bianca Sorvillo, 2017. "The derivatives through the lens of the financial accounts: measurement and analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 389, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. A. Bernales, 2014. "The Effects of Information Asymmetries on the Ex-Post Success of Stock Option Listings," Working papers 495, Banque de France.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Bruce Mizrach & Anna J. Schwartz, 1998. "Real versus Pseudo-International Systemic Risk Some Lessons from History," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 31-58.
    7. Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Shaghaghi, Ali Rais, 2012. "‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 627-646.
    8. Ms. Sheri M. Markose, 2012. "Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives: A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super-Spreader Tax," IMF Working Papers 2012/282, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2007. "Estimating systemic risk in the international financial system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 835-869, December.
    10. Zhu, Xiaodong, 1995. "Endogenous capital utilization, investor's effort, and optimal fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 655-677, December.
    11. Markose, Sheri M & Oluwasegun, Bewaji & Giansante, Simone, 2012. "Multi-Agent Financial Network (MAFN) Model of US Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO): Regulatory Capital Arbitrage, Negative CDS Carry Trade and Systemic Risk Analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 3712, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    12. Alejandro Bernales & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "The Effects of Information Asymmetries on the Success of Stock Option Listings," Working Papers 484, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. Jürgen Von Hagen & Ingo Fender, 1998. "Central Bank Policy in a More Perfect Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 493-532, January.
    14. Merton, Robert C., 1995. "Financial innovation and the management and regulation of financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 461-481, June.
    15. Chiara Oldani, 2005. "An Overview of the Literature about Derivatives," Macroeconomics 0504004, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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