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The Impact of the Federal Reserve Bank's Open Market Operations

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  • Campbell R. Harvey
  • Roger D. Huang

Abstract

The Federal Reserve Bank has the ability to change the money supply and to shape the expectations of market participants through their open market operations. These operations may amount to 20% of the day's volume and are concentrated during the half hour known as `Fed Time'. Using previously unavailable data on open market operations, our paper provides the first comprehensive examination of the impact of the Federal Reserve Bank's trading on both fixed income instruments and foreign currencies. Our results detail a dramatic increase in volatility during Fed Time. Surprisingly, the Fed Time volatility is higher on days when open market operations are absent. In addition, little systematic differences in market impact are observed for reserve-draining versus reserve-adding operations. These results suggest that the financial markets correctly anticipate the purpose of open market operations but are unable to forecast the timing of the operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell R. Harvey & Roger D. Huang, 1994. "The Impact of the Federal Reserve Bank's Open Market Operations," NBER Working Papers 4663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4663
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    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    2. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2012. "What does PIN identify? Evidence from the T-bill market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-46.
    3. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    4. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Tomoki Taishi, 2018. "Quantitative Easing and Liquidity in the Japanese Government Bond Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 463-475, September.
    5. Xinsheng Lu & Francis In, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Open Market Operations and New Zealand Interest-Rate and Exchange-Rate Markets," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 462-481.
    6. Luong, Phat V. & Sopranzetti, Ben, 2022. "Commodity markets intervention: Consequences of speculation, and informed trading," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    7. Sweeney, Richard J., 2007. "Fed intervention, dollar appreciation, and systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 167-192, March.
    8. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Kucuk, Ugur N., 2009. "Dynamic Sources of Sovereign Bond Market Liquidity," MPRA Paper 19677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Michael Melvin & Christian Saborowski & Michael Sager & Mark P. Tayor, 2010. "Bank of England Interest Rate Announcements and the Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(3), pages 211-247, September.
    11. Choi, Hyunyoung & Finnerty, Joseph, 2006. "Impact study on the interest rate futures market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 495-512, September.
    12. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "The microstructure of the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2007-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Tomoki Taishi, 2016. "Quantitative Easing and Liquidity in the Japanese Government Bond Market," Discussion Papers 1623, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    14. Bartolini, Leonardo & Prati, Alessandro, 2006. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy execution and money market rates' volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 349-376, February.
    15. Alain Durré, 2006. "The Liquidity Premium in the Money Market: A Comparison of the German Mark Period and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 163-187, May.
    16. Zheng Qiao & Yangshu Liu, 2017. "Open Market Operation Effectiveness in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 1706-1719, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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