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Bank Failures and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Progressive Era

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  • Gary Richardson
  • Marco Del Angel
  • Michael Gou

Abstract

During the Progressive Era (1900-29), economic growth was rapid but volatile. Boom and busts witnessed the formation and failure of tens of thousands of firms and thousands of banks. This essay uses new data and methods to identify causal links between failures of banks and bankruptcies of firms. Our analysis indicates that bank failures triggered bankruptcies of firms that depended upon banks for ongoing access to commercial credit. Firms that did not depend upon banks for credit did not fail in appreciably larger numbers after banks failed or during financial panics.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Richardson & Marco Del Angel & Michael Gou, 2024. "Bank Failures and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Progressive Era," NBER Working Papers 32345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Carlson & Kris James Mitchener & Gary Richardson, 2011. "Arresting Banking Panics: Federal Reserve Liquidity Provision and the Forgotten Panic of 1929," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(5), pages 889-924.
    2. Craig O. Brown & I. Serdar Dinç, 2005. "The Politics of Bank Failures: Evidence from Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1413-1444.
    3. Richardson, Gary, 2007. "Categories and causes of bank distress during the great depression, 1929-1933: The illiquidity versus insolvency debate revisited," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 588-607, October.
    4. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    5. Carlos D. Ramirez & Philip A. Shively, 2012. "The Effect of Bank Failures on Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States in the Early 20th Century," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 433-455, March.
    6. Dinc, I. Serdar, 2005. "Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 453-479, August.
    7. Davison, Lee K. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2014. "Local banking panics of the 1920s: Identification and determinants," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 164-177.
    8. Manasa Gopal & Philipp Schnabl, 2022. "The Rise of Finance Companies and FinTech Lenders in Small Business Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 4859-4901.
    9. Matthew Baron & Emil Verner & Wei Xiong, 2021. "Banking Crises Without Panics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 51-113.
    10. Gary Richardson & William Troost, 2009. "Monetary Intervention Mitigated Banking Panics during the Great Depression: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from a Federal Reserve District Border, 1929-1933," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(6), pages 1031-1073, December.
    11. Cortés, Kristle R. & Demyanyk, Yuliya & Li, Lei & Loutskina, Elena & Strahan, Philip E., 2020. "Stress tests and small business lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 260-279.
    12. Andrew J. Jalil, 2015. "A New History of Banking Panics in the United States, 1825-1929: Construction and Implications," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 295-330, July.
    13. Chava, Sudheer & Purnanandam, Amiyatosh, 2011. "The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 116-135, January.
    14. Daniel Carvalho, 2014. "The Real Effects of Government-Owned Banks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 577-609, April.
    15. Angel, Marco Del & Richardson, Gary, 2024. "Independent regulators and financial stability evidence from gubernatorial election campaigns in the Progressive Era," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2003. "Fundamentals, Panics, and Bank Distress During the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1615-1647, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaremski, Matthew & Richardson, Gary & Vossmeyer, Angela, 2025. "Signals and stigmas from banking interventions: Lessons from the Bank Holiday of 1933," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Hu, Wendi & Shao, Chujian & Zhang, Wenyu, 2025. "Predicting U.S. bank failures and stress testing with machine learning algorithms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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