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The Effect of Bank Failures on Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States in the Early 20th Century

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  • CARLOS D. RAMIREZ
  • PHILIP A. SHIVELY

Abstract

This paper provides evidence documenting the existence of a “bank failure channel”—the magnifying effect of bank failures on economic distress—using state‐level quarterly time series from 1900q1 to 1929q4. We estimate a vector autoregression model of bank failures for each state. The forecast‐error variance decompositions are used to construct a categorical measure of the “bank failure channel.” We examine the influence of regulatory variables, economic conditions, and banking conditions on the degree to which bank failures propagate distress. State‐sponsored deposit insurance and minimum capital requirements are important for explaining the likelihood of having a bank failure channel.
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Suggested Citation

  • Carlos D. Ramirez & Philip A. Shively, 2012. "The Effect of Bank Failures on Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States in the Early 20th Century," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 433-455, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i::p:433-455
    DOI: j.1538-4616.2011.00494.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00494.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Do bank failures still matter in affecting regional economic activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Howard Bodenhorn, 2016. "Two Centuries of Finance and Growth in the United States, 1790-1980," Working Papers id:11352, eSocialSciences.
    3. Davison, Lee K. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2014. "Local banking panics of the 1920s: Identification and determinants," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 164-177.
    4. Jacobi, Arie & Tzur, Joseph, 2021. "Wealth distribution and probability of bank failure across countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Aykut Ekinci & Halil İbrahim Erdal, 2017. "Forecasting Bank Failure: Base Learners, Ensembles and Hybrid Ensembles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 677-686, April.
    6. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Hassan, M.Kabir & Kumari, Vineeta & Hasan, Rashedul, 2023. "Repercussions of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse on global stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    7. Valerio Paolo Vacca & Fabian Bichlmeier & Paolo Biraschi & Natalie Boschi & Antonio J. Bravo Alvarez & Luciano Di Primio & André Ebner & Silvia Hoeretzeder & Elisa Llorente Ballesteros & Claudia Mian, 2021. "Measuring the impact of a bank failure on the real economy. An EU-wide analytical framework," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 626, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Luisa Blanco & Salvador Contreras & Amit Ghosh, 2022. "Impact of Great Recession bank failures on use of financial services among racial/ethnic and income groups," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(4), pages 1574-1598, April.
    9. del Angel, Marco & Richardson, Gary & Gou, Michael, 2024. "Bank failures and economic activity: Evidence from the Progressive Era," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Kupiec, Paul H. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2013. "Bank failures and the cost of systemic risk: Evidence from 1900 to 1930," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 285-307.
    11. Contreras, Salvador & Ghosh, Amit & Kong, Joon Ho, 2021. "Financial crisis, Bank failures and corporate innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. DeYoung, Robert & Kowalik, Michal & Reidhill, Jack, 2013. "A theory of failed bank resolution: Technological change and political economics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 612-627.
    13. Colvin, Christopher L., 2015. "The past, present and future of banking history," QUCEH Working Paper Series 15-05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    14. Contreras, Salvador & Ghosh, Amit & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2023. "The effect of bank failures on small business loans and income inequality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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