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The Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migrations: Evidence from Global Big Data

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Peri
  • Akira Sasahara

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of temperature changes on rural-urban migration using a 56km×56km grid cell level dataset covering the whole world at 10-year frequency during the period 1970-2000. We find that rising temperatures reduce rural-urban migration in poor countries and increase such migration in middle-income countries. These asymmetric migration responses are consistent with a simple model where rural-urban earnings differentials and liquidity constraints interact to determine rural-to-urban migration flows. We also confirm these temperature effects using country-level observations constructed by aggregating the grid cell level data. We project that expected warming in the next century will encourage further urbanization in middle-income countries such as Argentina, but it will slow down urban transition in poor countries like Malawi and Niger.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Peri & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "The Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migrations: Evidence from Global Big Data," NBER Working Papers 25728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25728
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Katrin Millock & Cees Withagen, 2021. "Climate and Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 10, pages 309-341, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2021. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Post-Print halshs-03672500, HAL.
    3. Esha Zaveri & Jason Russ & Amjad Khan & Richard Damania & Edoardo Borgomeo & Anders Jägerskog, 2021. "Ebb and Flow, Volume 1," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 36089, December.
    4. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2021. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03672500, HAL.
    5. Selod, Harris & Shilpi, Forhad, 2021. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Bruno Conte, 2022. "Climate Change and Migration: The Case of Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 9948, CESifo.
    7. Trong-Anh, TRINH & Simon FEENY & Alberto POSSO, 2021. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Migration: Findings from Vietnam," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 479-510, September.
    8. Helbling, Marc & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2022. "Global warming and urbanization," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2022. "Population displacement and urban conflict: Global evidence from more than 3300 flood events," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Marc Helbling & Daniel Meierrieks, 2023. "Global warming and urbanization," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1187-1223, July.
    11. Cascarano, Michele & Natoli, Filippo & Petrella, Andrea, 2022. "Entry, exit and market structure in a changing climate," MPRA Paper 112868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Karim Bekhtiar, 2022. "Robotization, Internal Migration and Rural Depopulation in Austria," Economics working papers 2022-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    13. Sichko, Christopher, 2021. "Migrant Selection and Sorting during the Great American Drought," SocArXiv wm2p3, Center for Open Science.
    14. Rodrigo Garcia‐Verdu & Alexis Meyer‐Cirkel & Akira Sasahara & Hans Weisfeld, 2022. "Importing inputs for climate change mitigation: The case of agricultural productivity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 34-56, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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