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Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Chicago Microdata

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  • Evan Herrnstadt
  • Erich Muehlegger

Abstract

A large and growing literature documents the adverse impacts of pollution on health, productivity, educational attainment and socioeconomic outcomes. This paper provides the first quasi-experimental evidence that air pollution causally affects criminal activity. We exploit detailed location data on over two million serious crimes reported to the Chicago police department over a twelve-year period. We identify the causal effect of pollution on criminal activity by comparing crime on opposite sides of major interstates on days when the wind blows orthogonally the direction of the interstate and find that violent crime is 2.2 percent higher on the downwind side. Consistent with evidence from psychology on the relationship between pollution and aggression, the effect is unique to violent crimes – we find no effect of pollution on the commission of property crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Herrnstadt & Erich Muehlegger, 2015. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Chicago Microdata," NBER Working Papers 21787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21787
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    Cited by:

    1. Clara Kögel, 2022. "The impact of air pollution on labour productivity in France," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 22020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Santiago M. Perez-Vincent & Enrique Carreras, 2022. "Domestic violence reporting during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Latin America," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 799-830, September.
    3. Chen, Fanglin & Zhang, Xin & Chen, Zhongfei, 2023. "Air pollution and mental health: Evidence from China Health and Nutrition Survey," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Guidetti, Bruna & Pereda, Paula & Severnini, Edson R., 2020. "Health Shocks under Hospital Capacity Constraint: Evidence from Air Pollution in Sao Paulo, Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 13211, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Stephan Heblich & Alex Trew & Yanos Zylberberg, 2021. "East-Side Story: Historical Pollution and Persistent Neighborhood Sorting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1508-1552.
    6. Barrows, Geoffrey & Garg, Teevrat & Jha, Akshaya, 2019. "The Health Costs of Coal-Fired Power Plants in India," IZA Discussion Papers 12838, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Daniel McGuire & Havell Markus & Lina Yang & Jingyu Xu & Austin Montgomery & Arthur Berg & Qunhua Li & Laura Carrel & Dajiang J. Liu & Bibo Jiang, 2024. "Dissecting heritability, environmental risk, and air pollution causal effects using > 50 million individuals in MarketScan," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Bruna Morais Guidetti & Paula Carvalho Pereda, Edson Roberto Severnini, 2021. "Health Shocks under Hospital Capacity Constraints: Evidence from Air Pollution in São Paulo, Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    9. Faraz Farhidi & Zaeng Mawi, 2022. "Is It Costly to Transition from Fossil Fuel Energy: A Trade-Off Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-15, October.
    10. John Voorheis, 2017. "Air Quality, Human Capital Formation and the Long-term Effects of Environmental Inequality at Birth," CARRA Working Papers 2017-05, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Liu, Haoming & Salvo, Alberto, 2018. "Severe air pollution and child absences when schools and parents respond," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 300-330.
    12. Akshaya Jha & Nicholas Z. Muller, 2017. "Handle with Care: The Local Air Pollution Costs of Coal Storage," NBER Working Papers 23417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bruederle, Anna & Peters, Jörg & Roberts, Gareth, 2017. "Weather and crime in South Africa," Ruhr Economic Papers 739, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Chalfin, Aaron & Danagoulian, Shooshan & Deza, Monica, 2019. "More sneezing, less crime? Health shocks and the market for offenses," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Jie-Sheng Tan Soo, 2018. "Valuing Air Quality in Indonesia Using Households’ Locational Choices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(3), pages 755-776, November.
    16. Yubo Hou & Meiqi Gao & Lianqiong Huang & Qi Wang, 2021. "Air Pollution Reduces Interpersonal Trust: The Roles of Emotion and Emotional Susceptibility," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-13, May.
    17. Jeongin Eum & Hyungkyoo Kim, 2021. "Effects of Air Pollution on Assaults: Findings from South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-13, October.
    18. Xiangnan Feng & Shuang Ma & Lingling Wen & Yan Zhao, 2021. "Immediate effect of air pollution on labor mobility: empirical evidence from online résumé data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(2), pages 483-512, October.
    19. Mengna Luan & Zhigang Tao & Hongjie Yuan, 2023. "Alive but not well: The neglected cost of air pollution," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(11), pages 2535-2567, November.
    20. Beland, Louis-Philippe & Brent, Daniel A., 2018. "Traffic and crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 96-116.
    21. Chen, Xiao & Guo, Gangxing, 2024. "Air pollution and online lender behavior: Evidence from Chinese peer-to-peer lending," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    22. Garg, Teevrat & McCord, Gordon C. & Montfort, Aleister, 2020. "Can Social Protection Reduce Environmental Damages?," IZA Discussion Papers 13247, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Jennifer A. Heissel & Claudia Persico & David Simon, 2022. "Does Pollution Drive Achievement? The Effect of Traffic Pollution on Academic Performance," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(3), pages 747-776.
    24. Jha, Akshaya & Muller, Nicholas Z., 2018. "The local air pollution cost of coal storage and handling: Evidence from U.S. power plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 360-396.

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    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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