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The Ups and Downs of Turkish Growth, 2002-2015: Political Dynamics, the European Union and the Institutional Slide

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  • Daron Acemoglu
  • Murat Ucer

Abstract

We document a change in the character and quality of Turkish economic growth with a turning point around 2007 and link this change to the reversal in the nature of economic institutions, which underwent a series of growth-enhancing reforms following Turkey's financial crisis in 2001, but then started moving in the opposite direction in the second half of 2000s. This institutional reversal, we argue, is itself a consequence of a turnaround in political factors. The first phase coincided with a deepening in Turkish democracy under the prodding and the guidance of the European Union, and witnessed the waning of the military's influence and the broadening of effective political participation. As Turkey-European Union relations collapsed and internal political dynamics removed the checks against the domination of the governing party, in power since 2002, these political dynamics went into reverse and paved the way for the institutional slide that is largely responsible for the lower-paced and lower-quality growth Turkey has been experiencing since about 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Daron Acemoglu & Murat Ucer, 2015. "The Ups and Downs of Turkish Growth, 2002-2015: Political Dynamics, the European Union and the Institutional Slide," NBER Working Papers 21608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    2. Asaf Akat & Ege Yazgan, 2013. "Observations on Turkey’s Recent Economic Performance," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Murat Üngör, 2014. "Some Observations on the Convergence Experience of Turkey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(4), pages 696-719, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Lending cycles and real outcomes : Costs of political misalignment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Simone Auer & Emidio Cocozza & Andrea COlabella, 2016. "The financial systems in Russia and Turkey: recent developments and challenges," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 358, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Modugno, Michele & Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and news decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1369-1384.
    4. repec:bla:etrans:v:25:y:2017:i:2:p:271-312 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spr:soinre:v:139:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1722-1 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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