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Inflation and Individual Equities

  • Andrew Ang
  • Marie Brière
  • Ombretta Signori

We study the inflation hedging ability of individual stocks. While the poor inflation hedging ability of the aggregate stock market has long been documented, there is considerable heterogeneity in how individual stock returns covary with inflation. Stocks with good inflation-hedging abilities since 1990 have had higher returns, on average, than stocks with low inflation betas and tend to be drawn from the Oil and Gas and Technology sectors. However, we show that there is substantial time variation of stock inflation betas. This makes it difficult to construct portfolios of stocks that are good inflation hedges out of sample. This is true for portfolios constructed on past inflation betas, sector portfolios, and portfolios constructed from high-paying dividend stocks.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17798.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17798.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Publication status: published as “Inflation and Individual Equities,” with Marie Brière and Ombretta Signori, 2012, Financial Analysts Journal, 68, 4, 36-55. Funded by Netspar.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17798
Note: AP
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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 278-294, April.
  2. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
  3. John H. Boyd & Bruce A. Champ, 2006. "Inflation, banking, and economic growth," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
  4. Andrew Ang & Dennis Kristensen, 2011. "Testing Conditional Factor Models," NBER Working Papers 17561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  6. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2003. "Sticky prices and monetary policy shocks," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-9.
  7. Bharat Kolluri & Mahmoud Wahab, 2008. "Stock returns and expected inflation: evidence from an asymmetric test specification," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 371-395, May.
  8. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, 04.
  9. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen, 2005. "CAPM Over the Long Run: 1926-2001," NBER Working Papers 11903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2006. "The conditional CAPM does not explain asset-pricing anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-314, November.
  11. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-70, May.
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