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Has medical innovation reduced cancer mortality?

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  • Frank R. Lichtenberg

Abstract

I analyze the effects of four types of medical innovation and cancer incidence on U.S. cancer mortality rates during the period 2000-2009, by estimating difference-in-differences models using longitudinal (annual) data on about 60 cancer sites (breast, colon, etc.). The outcome measure used is not subject to lead-time bias. I control for mean age at diagnosis, the stage distribution of patients at time of diagnosis, and the sex and race of diagnosed patients. Under the assumption that there were no pre‐dated factors that drove both innovation and mortality and that there would have been parallel trends in mortality in the absence of innovation, the estimates indicate that there were three major sources of the 13.8% decline of the age-adjusted cancer mortality rate during 2000-2009. Drug innovation and imaging innovation are estimated to have reduced the cancer mortality rate by 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively. The decline in incidence is estimated to have reduced the cancer mortality rate by 1.2%. The social value of the reductions in cancer mortality attributable to medical innovations has been enormous, and much greater than the cost of these innovations.

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  • Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2010. "Has medical innovation reduced cancer mortality?," NBER Working Papers 15880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15880
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Cook & Joseph Golec & John Vernon & George Pink, 2011. "Real Option Value and Path Dependence in Oncology Innovation," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 225-238.
    2. Dubois, Pierre & Kyle, Margaret K, 2016. "The Effects of Pharmaceutical Innovation on Cancer Mortality," CEPR Discussion Papers 11487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Erkmen G. Aslim & Wei Fu & Chia-Lun Liu & Erdal Tekin, 2022. "Vaccination Policy, Delayed Care, and Health Expenditures," NBER Working Papers 30139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jeon, Sung-Hee & Pohl, R. Vincent, 2019. "Medical innovation, education, and labor market outcomes of cancer patients," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Frank Lichtenberg, 2015. "The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on premature cancer mortality in Canada, 2000–2011," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 339-359, September.
    6. Lichtenberg, Frank R., 2022. "The effect of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity: Evidence from the U.S. and 26 high-income countries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. Frank Lichtenberg, 2012. "Contribution of Pharmaceutical Innovation to Longevity Growth in Germany and France, 2001–7," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 197-211, March.
    8. Frank Lichtenberg, 2010. "The Contribution of Pharmaceutical Innovation to Longevity Growth in Germany and France," CESifo Working Paper Series 3095, CESifo.
    9. Jae Ho Jung & Dae Jung Kim & Kangho Suh & Jaeeun You & Je Ho Lee & Kyung In Joung & Dong Churl Suh, 2021. "International Price Comparisons of Anticancer Drugs: A Scheme for Improving Patient Accessibility," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-14, January.
    10. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2022. "The association between pharmaceutical innovation and both premature mortality and hospital utilization in Switzerland, 1996–2019," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-24, December.
    11. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2019. "How Many Life-Years Have New Drugs Saved? A 3-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis of 66 Diseases in 27 Countries, 2000-2013," NBER Working Papers 25483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. George Miller & Matthew Daly & Charles Roehrig, 2013. "Tradeoffs in cardiovascular disease prevention, treatment, and research," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 87-100, June.
    13. Dubois, Pierre & Kyle, Margaret, 2016. "The Effects of Pharmaceutical Innovation on Cancer Mortality Rates," TSE Working Papers 16-688, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    14. Frank Lichtenberg, 2015. "The Impact of Pharmaceutical Innovation on Premature Mortality, Cancer Mortality, and Hospitalization in Slovenia, 1997–2010," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 207-222, April.
    15. James D. Chambers & Teja Thorat & Colby L. Wilkinson & Mark Salem & Prasun Subedi & Sachin J. Kamal-Bahl & Peter J. Neumann, 2017. "Estimating Population Health Benefits Associated with Specialty and Traditional Drugs in the Year Following Product Approval," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 227-235, April.
    16. Lichtenberg, Frank R. & Tatar, Mehtap & Çalışkan, Zafer, 2014. "The effect of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity, hospitalization and medical expenditure in Turkey, 1999–2010," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 361-373.
    17. Joseph P Cook, 2014. "Real Option Value and Path Dependence in Oncology Innovation," Seminar Briefings 000077, Office of Health Economics.
    18. Johannes Schoder & Peter Zweifel, 2011. "Flat-of-the-curve medicine: a new perspective on the production of health," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Nahila Justo & Jonas Nilsson & Beata Korytowsky & Johan Dalen & Terri Madison & Alistair McGuire, 2020. "Retrospective observational cohort study on innovation in oncology and progress in survival: How far have we gotten in the two decades of treating patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer as ," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-12, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • L64 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Other Machinery; Business Equipment; Armaments
    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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