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Can Learnability Save New-Keynesian Models?

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  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

Bennett McCallum (2009), applying Evans and Honkapohja's (2001) results, argues that "learnability" can save New-Keynesian models from their indeterminacies. He claims the unique bounded equilibrium is learnable, and the explosive equilibria are not. However, he assumes that agents can directly observe the monetary policy shock. Reversing this assumption, I find the opposite result: the bounded equilibrium is not learnable and the unbounded equilibria are learnable. More generally, I argue that a threat by the Fed to move to an "unlearnable" equilibrium for all but one value of inflation is a poor foundation for choosing the bounded equilibrium of a New-Keynesian model.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Cochrane, 2009. "Can Learnability Save New-Keynesian Models?," NBER Working Papers 15459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15459
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T., 2009. "Inflation determination with Taylor rules: Is new-Keynesian analysis critically flawed?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1101-1108, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Learning, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1273-1307, October.
    2. Piazza, Roberto, 2016. "Self-fulfilling deflations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 18-40.
    3. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2011. "Ruling out unstable equilibria in New Keynesian models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 247-249, September.
    4. Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2015. "Can the Learnability Criterion Ensure Determinacy in New Keynesian Models?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(1), pages 43-61, June.
    5. Pei Kuang, 2014. "Learning Dynamics with Data (Quasi-) Differencing," Discussion Papers 15-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    6. Bennett T. McCallum, 2012. "A Continuity Refinement for Rational Expectations Solutions," NBER Working Papers 18323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1535-1554, October.
    8. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2015. "Learning, hypothesis testing, and rational-expectations equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 93-105.
    9. Franz Seitz & Markus A. Schmidt, 2014. "Money In Modern Macro Models: A Review of the Arguments," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 156-174.
    10. Airaudo, Marco, 2013. "Monetary policy and stock price dynamics with limited asset market participation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-22.
    11. Suneetha M. S., 2014. "Perspectives on Valuation of Biodiversity," Working Papers 2014-088, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    12. Hiona Balfoussia & Sophocles N. Brissimis & Manthos D. Delis, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," Working Papers 138, Bank of Greece.
    13. Tom Holden, 2012. "Learning from learners," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1512, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    14. McCallum, Bennett T., 2015. "Nominal GDP targeting: Policy rule or discretionary splurge?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 76-80.
    15. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367 Elsevier.

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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