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Speculative Runs on Interest Rate Pegs

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  • Marco Bassetto
  • Christopher Phelan

Abstract

We analyze a new class of equilibria that emerges when a central bank conducts monetary policy by setting an interest rate (as an arbitrary function of its available information) and letting the private sector set the quantity traded. These equilibria involve a run on the central bank's interest target, whereby money grows fast, private agents borrow as much as possible against the central bank, and the shadow interest rate is different from the policy target. We argue that these equilibria represent a particular danger when banks hold large excess reserves, such as is the case following periods of quantitative easing. Our analysis suggests that successfully managing the exit strategy requires additional tools beyond setting interest-rate targets and paying interest on reserves; in particular, freezing excess reserves or fiscal-policy intervention may be needed to fend off adverse expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bassetto & Christopher Phelan, 2013. "Speculative Runs on Interest Rate Pegs," NBER Working Papers 18864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18864
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bassetto, Marco & Cui, Wei, 2018. "The fiscal theory of the price level in a world of low interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 5-22.
    2. Quinn, Stephen F. & Roberds, William, 2017. "An Early Experiment with "Permazero"," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Phelan, Christopher, 2015. "Should We Worry About Excess Reserves?," Economic Policy Paper 15-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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