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Poverty in America: Trends and Explanations

Abstract

Despite robust growth in real per capita GDP over the last three decades, the U.S. poverty rate has changed very little. In an effort to better understand this disconnect, we document and quantify the relationship between poverty and four different factors that may affect poverty and its evolution over time: labor market opportunities, family structure, anti-poverty programs, and immigration. We find that the relationship between the macro-economy and poverty has weakened over time. Nevertheless, changes in labor market opportunities predict changes in the poverty rate rather well. We also find that changes in female labor supply should have reduced poverty, but was counteracted by an increase in the rate of female headship. Changes in the number and composition of immigrants and changes in the generosity of anti-poverty programs seem to have had little effect.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11681.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Publication status: published as Hoynes, Hilary W., Marianne E. Page and Ann Huff Stevens. "Poverty In America: Trends and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2006, v20(1,Winter), 47-68.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11681
Note: LS PE
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
  • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
  • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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